• by March 6, 2001

Here they go again. Jupiter Media Metrix released another report today, which predicts meteoric growth in wireless users over the next 4 years. Right now, wireless users number slightly higher than 4.1 million, and Jupiter says that by 2005 that number will reach 96 million.

Forgive the skepticism, but I really think Jupiter's imaginary crystal ball must be broken.

As optimistic as I am about technology, I am once again reminded of something Andy Neusner, Producer of Office.com's Ad/Marketing/PR Vertical once said to me about Jupiter research. He said, "While they're smart people, they're pathetically eager to extrapolate in order to generate press coverage. 'Let's see: Last year they sold 1 million scooters. This year they sold 4 million. That means that in 10 years, everyone on Earth, and even some on Mars, will own one.'"

But let's attempt to be fair. The reason I'm writing about this is Jupiter does follow their outlandish projections with some sound advice. They suggest that the wireless industry must scale its plans for mobile interactive services in accordance with several hurdles that are not expected to go away anytime soon.

"The wireless industry must not underestimate the complexity of delivering Web services in a highly competitive and fractured environment," said Seamus McAteer, senior Jupiter analyst.

"This means the industry must hold back on ambitious plans to deliver mobile multimedia, and instead focus on delivering simple yet practical interactive services, such as games, short messaging and location-specific directories -- all of which are viable across multiple networks and narrow bandwidth."