Commentary

Ross Levinsohn Makes Bold Prediction

by Laurie Sullivan , Staff Writer, October 30, 2009

Ross Levinsohn, general partner Fuse Capital, opened OMMA Media Friday throwing out some stats. As media consumption continues to change, Levinsohn predicts 2010 will become the year video breaks through and become part of the mainstream advertising media buy. This is why: YouTube streams about 1.2 billion videos per day worldwide. Hulu streams about 488 million monthly video streams. About 26% of U.S. internet audience streamed a full-length TV show in August. The average consumer watches about 157 videos per month, he says citing comScore.

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William Lederer from iSOCRATES, October 30, 2009 at 8:14 p.m.
Ross, I think more likely 2011 benefiting from a media market recovery and better, and better distributed, online video measurement methodologies. Break-out online video ad buys will require taking share from TV ad budgets and that will not likely happen until a greater sense of trust, confidence, and willingness to take risks exists among marketers (as reflected in their agencies) towards this rapidly emerging, powerful medium. Likely hitting $1B in annual US ad revenue this year ad up from almost nothing 5 years ago, there is much to what Ross is saying.
But, a dozen years of hands-on internet enterprise experience has taught me to be suspicious of these very robust numbers we are reading about that stem from indirect measurement methodologies taken from very small samples with known biases from firms that may have rushed to market before both the online video measurement science and capture and reporting technology has matured sufficiently.
For example, some of what we really need to know must be derived from being inside a large cross-section of the various players which has just not happened, yet. The ID processes including non-standard metadata for identifying and matching online video deployed by many researchers and auditors leaves much to be desired. Given the identifiable market, streaming and audience sample sizes are just too small.
If my guess about online video taking share from traditional TV as the largest source of its immediate growth is correct, it will be the presence of TV-like metrics and more robust measurement and verification capabilities including multichannel and evidence-based(outcomes) that will be the catalyst NOT the presence of even more content as Ross suggests.
Where we can probably agree is that with less than 10% of commercial video content to be found online presently and still modest share of audience time consumed watching online video, the best of online video quality and quantity is yet to come. Money follows audiences, not the other way around UNLESS you explicitly pay for the audience.
My bold prediction: someday some video creator brings "pay TV" to online video in that they will offer to "Make You Rich". Now that's a compelling Reality TV format.
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