• by Masha Geller , June 6, 2001

I've long given up on taking any and all forecasts about the online advertising industry seriously, but I still get a strange kick out of some members of the industry exhibiting boundless and largely unfounded optimism about the future.

Case in point: according to a new DFC Intelligence report, streamed ad-supporting audio and video programming is forecast to generate $138 million in 2001.

The report also says that about 63% of Internet audio broadcasters have actually deployed, or have the capability to deploy, in-stream ads and about 24% of video-centric destinations and sites have deployed ad-insertion capability.

Additionally, there are a total of 1.8 billion audio avail opportunities per month, with CPMs ranging from $5-$60, and an average of 165-185 million video avail opportunities per month, with CPMs ranging from $30-$120. Nevertheless, in-stream video ads are forecast to represent only about 30% of total streaming advertising this year.

The report's author, Paul Palumbo, maintains the relatively small size of streaming advertising parallels revenue growth in other media. "Cable TV advertising was worth only $50 million in 1980. Today it is worth over $13 billion," he noted. "Because advertising in streaming media can be a very effective way to reach a highly targeted and qualified audience, we see strong long-term growth potential for this market, particularly for cross-platform brands."

Why the skepticism, you ask? Well, the year 2001 is effectively half over and I have yet to see any proof that streaming ads actually work. I've seen some isolated case studies but nothing to warrant $138 million. That's not to say we shouldn't look forward to brighter future. It just isn't going to happen in the next 6 months.