Television was at the
threshold of commercialization in 1929, well before the popular early shows of the late 1940s. Less than a year prior to
the stock market crash, two pioneering companies issued public shares: (1) Jenkins Television Laboratories and (2) Television Laboratories, Inc. While Jenkins concentrated on an inferior
mechanical image scanning technique, Television Labs founder
Philo Farnsworth invented an
electronic scanning methodology using cathode ray tubes. Farnsworth's success is underscored by the vernacular "tube" as a synonym for television.
Despite a promising 1929 start, two factors
delayed the advent of television for 17 years.
First, the Great Depression slammed the infant industry two brutal blows. One was a sharp contraction in funding needed to complete technical
development. Another was a paucity of consumer demand for non-essentials. TV was not the only casualty of weak consumer spending. For example, the recorded music industry released long-playing vinyl
records in 1931, only to withdraw them owing to lack of demand. Along with TV, they were successfully reintroduced 17 years later.
Second, the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) dominated
radio, where it was making so much money that it wanted to delay television. For example, during the Great Depression radio advertising alone grew at a compound annual rate of 21%, rising from $29
million in 1929 to $185 million in 1938.
Accordingly, in 1932 RCA bought a nearly bankrupt Jenkins and put its television technology on the shelf. It also tried to buy out Farnsworth. When
he refused to sell, RCA ruthlessly attacked Television Labs with a multi-year barrage of patent challenges intended to bleed the company white financially. After Farnsworth gained temporary funding
from Philadelphia Storage Battery (Philco), RCA threatened denial of key license renewals for Philco radio products. At the time RCA controlled nearly all radio patents with the notable exception of
FM, but that's another story and a good one.
There's no mistaking a David-and-Goliath echo in the Farnsworth-RCA struggle. For example, although Philo entered the Naval Academy with the
second highest entrance exam score he soon dropped-out to focus on television. Despite lacking a college degree he was funded by San Francisco businessmen who thereby unintentionally pioneered
the California venture capital business. To demonstrate the safety of air travel for speedy business trips, he took his wife aloft only to have her shout, "If you don't make (the pilot) land, I'll
jump!"
Ultimately RCA was forced to license Farnsworth patents, but its holding action combined with the Great Depression and the disruption of World War II, delayed commercialization of
television for nearly two decades. By that time Philo was sadly alcoholic and worn out.
Today the situation is comparable. Consumers of print, recorded music, and radio, have
already demonstrated a decided preference for Internet forms of such content. Steady improvements in network bandwidth obviously portend an equivalent transformation of video. Yet powerful companies
within gigantic economic stakes in the status quo, are unready for the transformation. Similarly, we've entered an economic downturn of unknown proportions.
Ultimately
consumers, merchants, and advertisers, will want (1) all video on the Internet and (2) unlimited Internet access at the television. Consumers want it so they can view programs whenever
they desire. It also provides Long-Tail content and enables a simple Google search for shows. Merchants and advertisers will like the accountability of a video-centric Internet. Online ads
can spontaneously generate sales and sponsors can better target commercials while only paying for those that actually get watched.
Near the end of his life, Farnsworth recovered from his
addictions to become an obscure, but venerated, industry statesman. When asked what he thought would be the future of television, he responded with a question:
"What do you want it to
be? If you can imagine something, sooner or later you may achieve it; conversely if you don't imagine it, then there is no hope of it becoming a reality."
What do we want the future of TV to
be?