The analogies
drawn between blockbuster movie openings and new smartphone launches in the last year have surely pleased manufacturers and wireless operators. The comparison itself suggests high-end phones have
pushed far enough into the mainstream for their rollouts to be considered media and pop cultural events in and of themselves.
It also indicates smartphones, like tentpole movies, have the
potential to pull in big audiences and become big money makers. And if they prove big hits, open the door to sequels extending multi-billion dollar franchises. But instead of tie-in action figures and
games, they generate related apps and accessories.
But like the high-stakes movie business, there's also the downside of being part of an increasingly hit-driven industry. Just as a more
crowded release schedule has made the opening weekend more critical to box office success for films, so the proliferation smartphones has shortened the window for new devices to catch on with
consumers.
"The furious cycle of device releases is accelerating and one wonders if the longevity of each device is starting to shrink as even the hit devices like Droid and Nexus One are not
allowed enough room to fully capitalize on their initial momentum," noted mobile consulting firm Chetan Sharma, in its latest quarterly data report released
Tuesday.
The Palm Pre looks like it's already been a casualty of this syndrome, getting off to a strong sales start before running out of steam as new competitors including the iPhone 3G and
Droid came along to woo smartphone customers. And the sequel, the Palm Pre Plus, has been a flop even with the help of the wireless equivalent of a huge movie theater owner in Verizon Wireless.
Critics faulted Verizon for not putting a big enough marketing push behind the Pre, like the $100 million campaign launched to promote the Droid last fall. Indeed, the ad blitz accompanying the
Android-based phone's release may increasingly become the norm for major smartphone launches if the movie analogy continues to hold true. Just wait for Microsoft's big mobile comeback vehicle coming
later this year starring Windows Phone 7.