Do you ever get the feeling that the ship has set sail and you may have missed the boat? When I think about the mobile advertising space, I tend to feel that way -- at least a little bit.
For years mobile was promised to be the "next big thing," but the feuding of the major carriers got in the way of any single standard being developed for advertising on the primary platforms ("on
deck," so to speak) and they missed their shot. Verizon, AT&T, Sprint: you all had your chance, and you pretty much blew it. Times are passing you by, and other players are in the space faster than
you could have imagined.
Due in no small part to wasted opportunities, Apple, Google and Microsoft are creating their own phones with their own standardized platforms and they're quickly
taking over the mobile space. Of course, these companies potentially may do the same exact thing as their predecessors in the space: fight each other and ignore the chance to create a standardized
model for mobile advertising that integrates directly into the operating system. If they could come to terms and agree on a model that worked, my opinion would change, but I don't foresee this
happening. If I were a TV network or cable carrier, I'd pay close attention to this issue. Co-opetition is a good thing when you make it work.
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Based on the lack of standardization and the
rapid growth of competing platforms, I am going out on a limb and may be the first person to say that mobile advertising has plateau-ed -- at least in its current iteration.
Mobile
advertising has too many problems hampering its growth, though the old standby of penetration is no longer one of them. More and more people are buying smartphones, so more and more people have the
opportunity to see advertising on a larger, more impactful screen. More people are watching video on their phones. More people are engaging with the Web through a browser on their phones. More
people are interacting with standard content formats through a mobile platform, so the mobile advertising opportunity becomes only an extension of those standard formats from a computer.
There's nothing truly special about these ad formats, as they are the same as what you get online (In a browser, you see ad banners. In video, you still get pre-roll.) In fact, most ad networks are
openly enrolling your ads into their mobile placements as well without telling you, thereby blurring the world of mobile and standard Internet even more. The lines are blurry because the usage is not
differentiated in the eyes of the consumer. As mobile phones become "mobile computers," the standard for computers is becoming the de facto norm.
The only unique thing that mobile has going
for it now is the application space (or apps). Apps are the growth area of mobile, and that is where Apple and Google are headed with their recent acquisitions of mobile ad networks. These networks
place ads inside applications and make them easier to sell by packaging them up for advertisers. These ads are moderately effective; they're really best as a reminder vehicle for a message that you
already engaged with somewhere else. They're not as targeted as Web ads because they don't have the sophistication of behavioral targeting, so they are primarily contextual. The volume of inventory
available on these platforms is low, and the growth rate seems steady, but not impressive.
The grandiose idea that mobile would be a stand-alone medium is starting to fade. Digital is the
umbrella term that encompasses mobile among other components. Mobile is a line item that speaks to specific objectives and supports a campaign by being embedded close to the point of contact for many
consumers, but it really is not a stand-alone medium and signs point to the fact that it may never be.
Of course, mobile can change its path if the industry can begin to look at the operating
system itself as a marketing vehicle. This will require some cooperation among the various companies playing in the space, but I'll reserve hope that they're able to figure it out. Until then, I'll
be on my boat, watching things sail on by (and no, I don't really own a boat - it's a metaphor!).
Do you agree with my observation or do you think mobile advertising will grow rapidly over
the next few years? Let us know -- post your replies on the Spin Board!