Even if the iPad achieves iPhone-like success, Amazon and its Kindle e-reader will continue to thrive, according to analysts at JP Morgan. "Despite (a) Apple's 4-year head start in MP3 sales and
(b) Apple's dominance in devices, we estimate Amazon had ~10% of the digital music market by the end of '09," the investment banks writes in a research note.
"We estimate that, even if Amazon's eBooks market share dips to 30%, it could still drive ~$900M in incremental revenue as eBook penetration grows ... Note that Amazon (a) has enjoyed a head start with the Kindle store, (b) manufactures the dominant dedicated device and (c) has aggressively expanded the Kindle platform to PCs and smartphones." Still, the question remains: Will tomorrow's marketplace be big enough for two powerhouse e-readers?