Commentary

Summer of Smartphones II

Sprint Evo

Around this time last year, the term "summer of smartphones" began surfacing to describe the unprecedented wave of smartphones and mobile app stores launching from companies including Apple, HTC, Palm and Nokia.

Comparisons were also made to the seasonal release of blockbuster summer movies as new smartphone debuts became media-fueled events in their own right, with devoted fans and early adopters lining up outside stores to be among the first to get their hands on hot phones.

A year later, some of those big device premieres turned out to be duds -- but smartphones sales are still surging, and a new line-up of summer releases from handset makers await their own walk down the red carpet.

The most high-profile flop from last year was the Palm Pre, which failed to bring in big crowds after a promising opening. Palm's disappointment with the bet-the-company device ultimately led to the struggling company being sold to HP for $1.2 billion in April.

But others like Apple, HTC and Motorola are set to release the latest sequels to hit franchises. Apple will introduce the latest version of its iPhone operating system, and possibly an upgraded iPhone model, as well, at its annual developer conference next week. Sprint this week is launching the HTC Evo, which it bills as "America's first 4G phone," and Verizon in July is expected to launch a pair of new Droid phones from Motorola.

Wireless manufacturers and carriers are certainly counting on the period between Memorial Day and Labor Day to rack up strong gains. Strong demand for smartphones has continued so far into 2010, with worldwide shipments up 49% in the first quarter compared to a year ago, according to Gartner.

The research firm has projected smartphones will account for 43% of the overall mobile phone market in 2013 and 70% in North America and Europe. So the audience is there -- but will this year's crop of blockbusters deliver? It's hard to bet against Apple with a long-running hit in the iPhone, but the buzz and positive early reviews that often accompany new releases, like the Pre or Google's Nexus One, aren't always accurate predictors of wireless "box office" success.

How many would-be iPhone killers have been touted, only to fall well short of commercial expectations? Finding out which would-be blockbuster devices have legs beyond the opening weekend only becomes clear weeks or months later. But the more hype around splashy new phone launches, the more pronounced the setback if they don't catch on with the public. That's showbiz.

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