• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, June 16, 2010

Interpublic global forecasting chief Brian Wieser kicked his presentation off at OMMA Publish this morning by acknowledging that some of the people in the digital media industry see him – and his forecasts – as a bit of a "wet blanket." He said that's because some of their more "fanciful" ideas are, in the view of Interpublic, "half baked."

Wieser's presentation follows the release of his revised global ad forecast, which nearly double the rate of expansion for 2010 – and beyond – vs. his last forecast at the end of 2009. And surprisingly, most media are expanding, including traditional ones like TV. Some, of course, are not. Especially, magazines. The reason, Wieser said, is that online media have done a good job of replacing some of consumer's needs for print media like magazines and newspapers. And while those media are slowing or eroding, Wieser says the overall effect has been to expand the market of media, and especially of new advertisers using media. That's a good thing of course.

But stepping back, and taking the long view – the long, global view – Wieser shared some of how and why Interpublic looks at why advertising is changing across the 60 countries it tracks worldwide – and equally as important, why it is not.

He cites five primary factors that govern these changes.

"No. 1 is organizational design," Wieser  told the OMMA Publish crowd, adding , "The way advertisers are organized, predisposes them to allocating money to certain media."

In fact, he says many of the media industry's kvetches, like the fact that advertising should be allocated on the basis of consumer "time spent" with media, is a complete "fallacy."

He called it an "overly simplistic view of media," adding, "this organizational design issue is important."

Other big factors influencing the supply and demand/expansion and contraction of media include: new technology, operational friction, sentimental factors.

"Warm and fuzzy factors absolutely influence why a medium can grow, and conversely, can explain why an industry can shrink," Wieser said, citing the fact that while print media continue to have good circulation figures, and even radio usage is high, the perceived sentiment on Madison Avenue is very negative about those media.

Wieser's advise to media looking to navigate these factors: "Focus on interests, not positions."

Interpublic's Wieser