Jack Myers, like everyone else, is shell shocked by the events of Sept. 11, admitting that they even threaten his livelihood ("Because the economy is so dependent on uncontrollable external
influences, forecasts could be considered futile.").
Yet today, the publisher of Jack Myers Report issued another long term forecast, a revision with a gleam of hope in it, with indications of
ad spending growth after declines through next year.
Myers maintains that spending will drop for almost every category through next year, but begin growing in 2003 with continued growth through
2006.
"Consumer magazine and television advertising have been hit hard by last month's events, but they will have a more sustained and meaningful recovery," he says. "Cable TV will be the
primary beneficiary of increased TV advertising, and the market share of broadcast TV will continue its slide. Consumer magazines will experience an exceptional market share gain, reflecting
marketers' desire to associate messages with content targeted to discreet audiences."
Myers says online advertising will show the greatest growth of any medium, in part because government will
"move quickly to advance standards for new media." Another reason is that marketers are moving away from brand building to short term promotional and direct marketing investments, which includes
online.
Today's report includes specific spending projections through 2006 for 12 media categories. Projections for broadcast TV go from -6 percent for 2001 to -9 percent next year with growth
beginning in 2004. Magazines will drop 4.5 percent this year, 9 percent next year but then begin to grow in 2003.
Behind the numbers is an attempt to see an ultimate recovery from the traumatic
events of the recent past. Although he sees an "ongoing disruption of the economy from the war on terrorism," he claims marketers will return to brand advertising, advertising will be more cost
efficient, and advertisers will use integrated multi-media packages to achieve their goals. "We cannot let short term realities impinge on the inherent strength of the media industry," he says. Total Advertising Spending Original Projections New Projections
2001 -4.0% -6.6%
2002 -1.7%
-7.4%
2003 0.0% +0.9%
2004 +2.7% +3.0%
2005 +0.9% +1.6%
2006 +1.0% +3.0%
Source: Jack Myers Report