Commentary

Just an Online Minute... The Last Forecast

Jack Myers, founder and chief executive of the Myers Reports Corp. research firm is closing the New York-based company after laying off essential staff throughout the past few weeks. But he's still optimistic about the future of the media industry as a whole. On the heels of his recently released downgraded ad spending projections for 2001 and 2002, the media consultant said today that the radical cost- cutting measures being imposed by major corporations will result in better than previously projected ad spending gains from 2003-2006.

"As we projected on September 20, the worsening economy and related ad spending cuts will hurt the media business tremendously this year and next," Myers said. "What we are seeing, though, is a dramatic acceleration in corporate cost- cutting measures in the aftermath of Sept. 11 that ultimately will speed up the recovery process starting in 2003."

Writing in today's edition of the daily Jack Myers Report newsletter, Myers said that marketers now focusing on short- term promotional and direct marketing investments will need to "return to brand advertising to protect their franchises and build market share as consumers trim their spending."

Myers sees consumer magazines and television, both of which have been particularly hard hit by the events of Sept. 11, in line for a more sustained and meaningful recovery. He said that the government's increased receptivity to media consolidation and advancement of standards for new interactive media technologies will boost revenue for Internet and television as early as 2004-05, two years earlier than previously forecasted.

Online advertising's share of total ad spending is expected to grow from 0.9% in 1998 to 5.1% in 2006, the largest share increase of any medium.

"The value of media is unquestioned, and the long-term viability of media is being enhanced," Myers said. "Short- term realities will not impinge ion the inherent strength of the media industry."

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