While results in the early spring months were strong, buoyed by pent-up demand, "we are coming out of that blip and seeing very different levels of growth," says Frank Badillo, senior economist for Kantar Retail. "On one hand, we're seeing the ups and downs of the stock market have a definite impact, and sales at stores like Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom were very strong. On the other, persistent concern about the job market is affecting lower income shoppers."
Adding to the soft results, he says, is an increasingly competitive promotional environment. "Walmart has been especially so, with increasing emphasis on its rollbacks, and that is creating a higher level of competition among mass retailers." Those trends have combined to "cause a real unevenness in retail results."