Abacus, a division of DoubleClick Inc., has released its Fall 2001 Catalog Industry Trend Report, which for the first time reveals a channel shift from catalogs to online consumer purchasing from 2000
to 2001. In addition, the data reveals that consumer catalog spending resumed after September 11th and rose above 2000 levels.
Data from the Trend Report discloses a decline in catalog sales
as well as the impact of eCommerce on catalog purchasing trends. Fewer online consumers reported making catalog purchases, indicating that online consumers may have shifted some of their purchasing to
the online channel. The online factor is most likely one of a number of aspects leading to a decline in catalog sales.
More specifically, the report unveils that dollar sales for the 12-month
period (ending June 2001) dropped 5.7% from the previous 12-month period. While nearly the same number of households purchased - 43 million - average order sizes declined. When analyzed on a monthly
basis, February and March 2001 showed the sharpest declines, with 9.5% and 14.3% respectively from the same period in 2000, while June 2001 showed signs of recovery
Also, over 64% of online
consumers reported making a catalog purchase in the last six months, down from 69% in 2000.
The data shows an increase in online purchasing. 67% of U.S. online users report making a purchase in
the last 6 months in 2001, up from 63% in 2000, indicating that many consumers have shifted their purchasing to online from other traditional channels, including catalogs.
"The data allows us
to conclude for the first time that the decline in catalog sales is most likely due to a shift to the online order channel, along with a combination of fewer mailings and more cautious spending by
consumers," said Brian Rainey, President of Abacus. "The data reveals a high cross-over between online and catalog and demonstrates that catalogers require an effective strategy to acquire, retain and
market to online customers. With the depth that the Report provides, marketers can greatly benefit by making improved strategic decisions that can help elevate the entire industry."
Abacus
found that the Apparel and Accessories catalog market saw an upturn with an increase of nearly 1% in dollar sales for the 12-month period ending June 30, 2001. However, sales for the first half of
2001 were down 7% from the first half of 2000, driven by lower average order sizes
Sales in the Home Decor and Furnishings market declined 2.8% for the 12 months ending June 30, 2001. Unlike
the apparel market, order sizes remained the same, with $146 in June 2000 compared with $147 in June 2001 for example, while the number of households purchasing declined. The Gift market declined 4.4%
over the same period.
For the Clothes/Accessories category, over 16% of online users reported purchasing in this category up from 12.6% in Fall 2000; over 30% of online users reported shopping in
Fall 2001, up from 25% from Fall 2000. This market has also grown to be the third largest online merchandise category after Airline Tickets/Reservations and Books.
The data shows that 85% of
the online population shops online. In 2000 the corresponding figure was 84%.
In addition, the analysis of the weeks immediately following September 11th reveals a sharp but short-term decline
in sales from the same period for the end of August/early September, 2000. However, beginning on September 21st, dollar sales rose sharply and stayed above 2000 levels for five consecutive weeks.
Consumer catalog spending seems to have recovered quickly in the weeks following the attacks, indicating good news for catalogers who maintained their holiday mailing schedules. Interestingly, from a
geographic basis, although certain states were directly impacted by the attacks such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, they all followed
similar catalog purchasing trends as the rest of the country.