• by Masha Geller , December 18, 2002

This week is full of headline optimism for 2003. Yesterday, eMarketer released their Media Spend Outlook 2003 report, predicting a 6.3% growth for online media spending next year. Today, DoubleClick chimed in with their Fall 2002 Marketing Spending Index study, which also predicts a rosy 2003 for the online medium - 51% of marketers expect budgets to be about 11% higher next year compared to 2002.

Interestingly enough, DoubleClick results show that marketers using online for brand awareness increased to 82% in this study, compared to 75% in the spring. The study also reveals that when branding awareness is the primary objective, online advertising is perceived as nearly as effective as print and slightly more effective than radio.

The percentage of marketers using online ads for direct response has actually decreased to 43%, compared to 52% in the spring study, but 44% of marketers still report having measurement tools in place, primarily "clicks" and "hits."

What’s more alarming than continued usage of the term “hits” is that out of those marketers who plan to keep their spending the same or lower next year, 33% say that’s because they’re still “unsure about the effectiveness of online advertising” and 29% cite inconsistent reporting. Furthermore, 19% of marketers (up from 13% in the spring) showed growing concern about the expense of online advertising.

On the email side, the picture is similar. A promising 57% of marketers said they expect to increase their spending on email marketing in 2003, but effectiveness of email ranks high as an impediment to increasing spend on email marketing. Specifically, marketers cited concern about increased volume impacting response rates, with privacy and SPAM topping the list.

It’s no wonder all projected online ad spending growth rates average a measly 6%.