• by John Gaffney , November 13, 2002

Hold off on that magazine turnaround talk. Yes, the Publisher’s Information Bureau has logged its second straight month of healthy increases. Yes, some key product categories and individual titles are trending up. But key players in the market aren’t sold on a turnaround.

Fundamental problems still dog the print market. As expressed by magazine consultant Chris Bonner, president of Bonner Consultant, the jury is still out on a complete turnaround. He believes too many magazines are still focused on short-term deal making rather than long-term brand building. In a tough economy, and huge pressure to report good numbers to Wall Street, media companies can hardly bed blamed for focusing on the next quarter.

“I’m concerned that these increasing overall numbers are the result of aggressive business tactics rather than strategic market strategies,” Bonner said. “Are magazines truly coming around or are they just consolidating? Are they forging more solid bonds with consumers and advertisers? I think they’re all very focused on market share and the good magazines are able to grab it.”

Deutsch chief media officer Peter Gardiner says the past two months are evidence of “the very beginnings of health coming back to magazines.” However, he and several agency colleagues are still concerned that year-to-year comeback measurements are positively painted by the dismal state of Q3 and Q4 last year after the terror attacks. They may also be inflated by the crowded state of network and cable TV. If TV avails are expensive and even sold out, brands are forced to print.

Gardiner is still optimistic overall.

“There are some categories that are going to drive some magazine revenue into early next year,” Gardiner said. “Health, beauty and cosmetics are getting hotter. I even think technology is going to make a bit of a comeback early next year. Automotive drove a lot of the TV upfront growth this year, and it will continue to stay hot.”

Bonner says niche magazines will reap the rewards of category growth. “I wish I could say for sure which product categories will do well,” he said. “But in my opinion magazines that address a specific audience will do better than broad based books.”