• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 1, 2011

Will this year's TV upfront be strong? Hey, can Schwarzenegger still benchpress 225 pounds? (Soon he'll be in the comics, I'm told. So I'm guessing he can still push stuff around).

Last year's modestly healthy CPM increases of 7% to 9% on the broadcast and cable networks could be much more this year -- perhaps a seemingly unbelievable 12% to 15%, according to some recent estimates, a range not regularly witnessed since the late '80s/early '90s.

What's the new wrinkle? It's that cable networks could collectively rocket past broadcast networks in overall upfront dollars -- say around $9 billion for the cable networks compared with $8.7 billion for the broadcast networks. Psychologically, this gives cable networks a better push out of the gate -- at least in attempting to close the gap when it comes to those all-important CPMs.

Right now broadcast networks are at $30 to $35 CPM for 18-49 viewers; top cable networks with original dramas or unscripted programming can be $20 to $25 range. But reports suggest that if broadcast gets 12 to 15% increases, cable should command even better gains.

Though things have cooled off a bit, this season's scatter market witnessed pricing at crazy price inflations -- some 40% more than upfront pricing in some cases. That has to give some concern to media agency executives and their clients' brand managers.

With this kind of marketplace picture, you can only imagine some bigger savvy media agency executives are looking to make immediate headway now, before all the craziness surely starts after Memorial Day, the usual, but not-so-official launch of the upfront marketplace.

One media buying executive told TV Watch if prices are indeed soaring now there is little reason to do an early upfront deal. There won't be much saving -- unless media agencies want to entice some poorly performing networks (hello, NBC!) via a massive volume increase in upfront budgets from their clients.

Broadcasters, of course, still have plenty of leverage. With additional rating erosion this season, this again means a harder time for advertisers to get into the shows they want.

Say hello to my little media friend: supply and demand.

Cable may become the big mover in the upfront, but those four broadcast networks still get higher ratings than the top cable networks. That is one thing that won't change -- at least for this upfront season.