Commentary

The Tablet Takes Over, Sort Of

nook Research from Nielsen Thursday on how tablets are eating into the use of PCs and laptops as well as newer devices like e-readers stirred a buzz in the tech blogosphere. Yes, the tablet drives another nail in the coffin of the traditional desktop computer in the era of cloud computing and portable machines.

A rumor is also circulating online that Google will soon announce a $10 a month Chrome OS-powered laptop rental. If true, why actually buy a PC or a laptop then at all, for that matter?

That 35% of PC owners and 32% of laptop owners are using these machines less or not at all after getting a tablet isn't so surprising given falling sales and the bleak future so often predicted for these older technologies. And only last month, an AdMob survey of 1,400 tablet users found a much larger proportion -- 77% -- had cut back on desktop/laptop use because of the tablet.

More intriguing was the finding that 27% of those who also own e-readers have cut back or stopped using their Kindle, Nook, Sony Reader or similar device. That doesn't necessarily mean people have switched to reading e-books on a tablet, but presumably that's part of what's causing a drop in e-reader use. It doesn't bode well for Amazon in particular, because the web retail giant doesn't sell its own tablet, or a tablet-like e-reader, like Barnes & Noble's Nook Color.

Less time spent with Amazon's Kindle means potentially fewer $9.99 e-book sales, and in turn, less revenue. For Sony, which last month announced the release of a pair of tablets later this year, the Nielsen findings suggests its new tablets could cannibalize sales of the Sony Reader. That depends in part, of course, on what kind of reception the devices get from consumers. The Reader is already struggling for market share against the Kindle, Nook and other e-readers, with about 5% of sales, according to IMS Research. 

Coverage of the Nielsen data has focused on how tablets are eroding use of computers and other gadgets. But the research also showed that some users have actually increased use of other high-tech gear after buying a tablet. So while 27% are curling up less often with their e-readers, 16% are doing so more (and 56% about the same.) And when it comes to netbooks, the proportion of people using them less or not at all, and more, is about the same -- 28% versus 27% -- making it basically a wash.

The same is true for portable gaming consoles, with 25% of tablet owners using them less but another 26%, more. Go figure. But the data indicating that portion of tablet owners are using some of their other devices more seems to balance the erosion of usage by others. Another thing to keep in mind, only 8.4 million tablets shipped in the U.S. last year, according to an IDC estimate. That total is expected to more than double to 16.9 million this year, but it's still a small percentage of the overall population.

One device that looks safe from cannibalization so far is the smartphone, which only 11% of those surveyed are using less and 25% are using more. Tablets are portable, but they can't top mobile phones at that game. If you've gotten a tablet recently, how much has it changed how often you use other hardware around the house, at work or in between? 

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