• by George Simpson , Featured Contributor, July 1, 2011

It seems more than ironic that in the same week: 1) Facebook plans an IPO that could value the company at $100 billion, give or take; 2) News Corp. dumps MySpace for a distressed $35 million to an ad network and a singer/actor (who better to pull a rabbit out of the hat?); and 3) Google+ begins collecting beta users. 

One wonders if the annoying and time-consuming task of reestablishing connections with people with whom you already connect through three or four other social media channels will work in Facebook's favor, and help add Google+ to the heap of prior Google Great Ideas that Failed? Or will the refreshingly clean interface of Google+ pull Facebookers who, like me, are tired of the cluttered pages that seem only harder and harder to navigate (especially if you only drop in occasionally)?

I say, follow the young. As soon as any social media site begins to be more about the parents than the kids, the kids start looking for someplace else to hang out. Kinda like when they'd rather sit at a separate table at family night out at a restaurant. Or five seats away from you at the movies. Facebook is already seeing a slowdown in the 18-44 demo in the U.S., which they rationalize as everything from concern over privacy coverage to just "a seasonal breather." Or it could be kids on the way out the door. 

Kids were early adopters of MySpace, but when they saw their parents hanging out there, they left for Facebook -- something ostensibly designed for them. But now that their parents (and their friends and lots of other smarmy adults) are lurking there, it is time to hit the door and head for another hangout. Might Google+ be it? Especially since video seems to be a central factor?

I have heard lots of reasons why this "could never happen to Facebook," but remain unconvinced. After all, something like $12 billion was the potential valuation for MySpace suggested in 2007, when Murdoch attempted to merge MySpace with Yahoo.  In this space, anything is possible. 

And what about the adults who make up an increasingly larger part of the social media population, who may be tempted to bolt for Google+?  I think this was best summed up in a discussion group post by Motivity Marketing's Kevin Ryan, who wrote: "I was worried that I... have to race to be the first kid on my block to arbitrarily sign up for yet another one dimensional relationship tool/ immediately exploited for marketing purposes by self appointed gurus for the already inflated/ self aggrandizing/ needy consuming public/ colleagues, then harass my friends and family to join so we can turn life's banalities into a parade of ad-targeting fodder for the obnoxiously wealthy, private jet flying, make me feel bad for not giving back enough, techno-elite." 

Priceless.