Commentary

Will Google+ Survive? Wait For Google Graph

by Cory Treffiletti , Featured Contributor, July 20, 2011

I want to be the first person to write an article touting the demise of Google+, and I want to write it just two short weeks after it launched.

That being said, the truth is I sort of like Google+, but I don't know why. I've spent lots of time playing with the newest entrant in the "my sandbox is bigger than yours" world of Google, and I like some of what they did, but I can't decide if I will be using it in four months or if it will crash like the much-heralded Google Wave.

First off, I enjoy the Circles concept, and I am a fan of the ease with which I can revise the stream to reflect these individual circles vs. the whole deluge of content that is available to me. I like the interface because it's clean and quite simple. Not too much going on in the page to distract me from what I'm supposed to be doing, which is reading content. The +1 feature is also interesting as it allows the system to surface the most interesting content for me. These are all innovations that Facebook should be paying close attention to, as each would improve on the standard Facebook experience.

Now, here's what I don't like -- or rather, what I don't "get." I don't know when I would use a Hang-Out, except if I were a 15-year-old and wanted to chat with my buddies from school. I also don't know why I would spend time reading the content in Google+ when it's a repetition of the content I see on Facebook, Twitter, and in my Flipboard pages. Flipboard may not seem like your first choice for a competitive product, but the feed of content is the same as the selections I have showing up there, so hence the repetition.

In marketing, repetition is good; we call it frequency. In news feeds, it's not so good. Plus, the other thing I find funny is that 65% of the feed I see on Google+ right now is articles and comments about Google+. It's a self-congratulatory feed dominated by people trying to tell me what I should be doing on Google+! It feels a bit selfish, and hasn't yet demonstrated its value to me. Oh -- and I need a mobile solution fast, since most of my Facebook time is spent on the phone, and that's table stakes if you want to compete.

My favorite comments so far are those people who post saying "Google+ is 100% of my social feed now, no more Facebook feed for me." These people are the extremists, and I would love to see if they are singing the same tune in about four months.

I don't see Google+ as a replacement for Facebook at all, but rather as a competitor for Twitter. Twitter is a news feed for me, while Facebook is a personal device. My friends from high school and college are on Facebook, and if they weren't, then I probably wouldn't be there either. There's certainly Facebook fatigue setting in these days, but the reach and penetration it has with less-Internet-focused people is where its strength lies, and I don't see that shifting anytime soon. Google+ adoption is happening among early adopters and digital pioneers (and apparently it's very male, according to some data I saw over the weekend). When my Dad shows up on Google+, then I'll consider it achieving critical mass. My Dad still isn't on Twitter either, so that's my barometer for now.

Do I think Google+ plus will survive and prosper? Yes. Will it supplant Facebook and become the dominant social network in the next 5 years? No.

I don't think Google minds, either. What Google gets out of this is data. They get share data, they get connection data, and they get an implicit approval to use this data to supplement their advertising targeting platform. Google+ is just the precursor to the Google Graph product. I don't know if that's what they're calling it, but I predict Google will roll out their own social graph targeting platform sometime in the next 18 months, one that will give the social targeting category a run for its money. If they integrate Doubleclick and the Ad-Words platform with it, then Google gains a powerful advantage over the competition.

What do you think?

google, social media

8 comments about "Will Google+ Survive? Wait For Google Graph".

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Jesus Grana from Independent, July 20, 2011 at 9:58 a.m.
sorry you were not the first - from last Thursday: Where's the + ? http://jrgrana.com/blog/?p=599
Reply

Rick Monihan from None, July 20, 2011 at 10:10 a.m.

I'm not trying it. Yet. So my opinion is limited to this: Facebook does what I want it to do, most of my friends are there, and at some point I may well drop it anyway (though that day may be pretty far off). So trying something new, today, just to try it is a waste of time.

If Google + shows some significantly huge benefits in the near future, then I may switch. If it shows that they are less concerned about capturing and using data about me than Facebook is (and the amount they have scares me to death despite the limitations I've put on it, and I know Google has as much if not more information about me), then I may switch.

In the meantime, I'll stick with what I've got. Too much to be bothered at this point.

Betsy Kent from Be Visible Associates, July 20, 2011 at 10:16 a.m.

Hi Corey,
Very insightful article. I agree with you about Google+ being a bigger competitor to Twitter than to Facebook. My feelings are that average users are comfortable in the Facebook platform, regardless of its so obvious flaws and friction.
Twitter is very mysterious and confusing to a great percentage of people who I speak to (outside of tech) and those may find Google+ to a much more usable platform for real time discussions.
But...I've been surprised before.
Very curious about what Google has in store for business applications, too.

Sandy Miller from Success Communications, July 20, 2011 at 10:51 a.m.

I think the jury is still out on this for now. Especially since not everyone can get on. But I do think social media is constantly evolving and if not this, than something will come along to knock Facebook down a few pegs.

It will take a while for any competitor to really go up against a site with this much penetration into the market, but it just seems to be the natural progression with this type of type of medium that there is always going to be someone trying to develop a new way to do things better.

I love Facebook, but it isn't perfect and the issues that users have with it means its always vulnerable to something new.

Jeremy Shatan from Hope & Heroes Children's Cancer Fund, July 20, 2011 at 12:10 p.m.

So much of Twitter for me is about organization accounts - record labels, musician/bands, non-profits, news organizations - that until Google+ decides what it is going to do with "entity" pages, I don't see how it could compete.

Heather Wetzler from Talent House, July 20, 2011 at 7 p.m.

Facebook is not dead - but Google+ will help adjust FB's valuation down to something realistic.

Fred Wilson wrote a good article: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/07/why-im-rooting-for-google.html

Rick Mulholland from Novell Design Studio, July 21, 2011 at 4:36 p.m.

While I like some of the concepts behind Google +, I just don’t see the need to try out a new social platform. Giving up MySpace for Facebook was enough. I am one hundred percent happy with Facebook as an entity, and as they say in The Social Network – it really is cool. I would really be surprised if Google + becomes the next big thing. I love and rely on Google as a search engine, for maps and directions, image searches, analytics and a few other technology-centered platforms. But do I really need Google for online socializing? Probably not. It just seems out of the niche, yet only time will tell the whole story.

Rick Zambrano from Kandessa Media, July 21, 2011 at 11 p.m.

While I can see the view points expressed here, I see real potential in Google+ becoming a contenter against both Facebook and Twitter. It already seems to combine the best elements of both. The main challenge (as demonstrated by my peers' posts) is getting people to switch or try something new. But let's look at where food trucks are now? Only 1 in 3 consumers are aware of them as a menu option but the movement is gaining momentum.

I see Google+ circles as "layers of comfort," helping me share both private and public thoughts from one channel. While the hangouts make take some help from a "teenager" to get me going, it has true marketability. News channels are already using it to better engage their viewers with near real-time behind the scenes interaction. This is my viewpoint now but it may change.

Still getting the hang of it...I don't know enough about Google Graph but it also sounds powerful.