Google+ has clearly been getting a lot of traction, both in terms of new users and publicity, but what's not clear is exactly how many people are using this social thing (which is not a
network, thank you very much).
The most popular figure floating around right now is 20 million (and its wishy-washy variants, "about 20 million," "over 20 million,"
"nearly 20 million," etc.). While some journalists and bloggers are now slinging this figure around like it's an established fact, it's worth remembering that it is a projection
based on a statistical sampling technique created by Paul Allen, the founder of Ancestry.com, who compared the frequency of surnames in Google+ with their frequency in the general population.
Now I am no mathematician -- not even close -- and statistics give me a rash, so I freely admit I have nothing to say about Allen's methodology or conclusions. But I was also unable to
reconcile the 20 million figure with separate data from Experian Hitwise, showing that Google+ attracted just over 1.8 million total visits in the week ending July 16, 2011.
There are a
couple possible explanations for the apparent disparity between the number of users and the number of visits, but none of them is terribly convincing at an intuitive level. For example, I guess
it's possible that the majority of those (projected) 20 million Google+ users signed up and then just never visited again -- but that just doesn't sound like the rapturous reception I have
been led to expect, given the feeding frenzy of interest in tech circles. I mean, I have to think new Google+ members would visit their preciousss at least once a week, right? Or maybe
Allen's guesstimate is off, somehow (and in a way I'm not competent to investigate)?
Anyhoo, some of Experian's other data does confirm that -- whatever its current size --
Google+ is indeed growing rapidly and entering the mainstream. The 1.8 million visits represent an increase of 283% versus the previous week, and an increase of 821% over the week before that. And
in the most recent Experian figures, 57% of visits to Google+ were from males, suggesting that the gender imbalance of a few weeks before (90% male-10% female) may be correcting itself.