• by Larry Dobrow , May 7, 2003

In announcing the details of its second Audit Bureau of Circulations publisher's statement on Monday, The New York Sun rightly crowed about its surging circulation numbers. It is now at 30,569 daily. But it was another piece of news within the press release that got the attention of the newspaper community.

Eschewing the usual newspaper advertising model - in which rates are strictly based on audited circulation statements - The Sun has taken a cue from the world of magazines and introduced a rate base guarantee of 33,000 average total paid circulation for the second quarter of 2003. The offer has been extended to advertisers who place six or more ads in The Sun by June 27.

As far as most sources can remember, no such guarantee has ever been made by a U.S. newspaper. But William Kummel, The Sun's chief operating officer, characterizes the guarantee as a way of stressing that the newspaper has a high level of both expectations and commitment.

"When you think about it, what better way is there to communicate to advertisers a sense of the vitality and growth of the paper?" Kummel asks. "We wanted to indicate to advertisers where we expect the paper to be - at a minimum - and our willingness to stand by our projections."

Kummel adds that while the arrangement is "unique," he is slightly surprised that no newspaper has adopted it before now. "We see a lot of similar characteristics in the magazine industry," he explains. "There are dozens of startups every year, and that's where we were not too long ago. There are sudden shifts in readership, which is what we're seeing now with our most recent circ numbers."

Newspaper analyst John Morton of Morton Research, however, largely reacted to the news with a shrug. "To be honest, I don't necessarily think it's a risk," he said. "I don't think there's any potential downside to it; I'm just not sure if it will have a positive impact. Advertisers will still look to the audited results [to set rates]."

As for The Sun's circulation numbers, the newspaper reported an average daily paid circulation of 26,263 for the six-month period between September 28, 2002 and March 28, 2003. For the first quarter of 2003, the paper's daily paid circulation surged to 30,569, up from 17,994 (a 70% gain) in the September 2002 statement. All figures are subject to audit.

Kimmel is enthusiastic about the preliminary results, saying they prove The Sun has carved out a niche of its own in the hyper-competitive New York City newspaper landscape. "The paper continues to find a larger and larger audience. At the very least, it's on track with expectations, if not better," he said. "It is a unique product."

Morton does not dispute that assertion, although he believes it's far too early to judge the newspaper either a success or a failure: "Starting up a daily newspaper in a market already served by one or more is usually an endeavor frought with economic pain. But hey, all the power to them - they're giving it a go." He does not attach much significance to the surging circulation, however. "You would expect a new newspaper's circulation to increase, just because it's there."