• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, September 21, 2011

'Tis the season to read holiday tea leaves, and three just-released forecasts predict that consumer spending will be lukewarm, at best.

At the low end, the International Council of Shopping Centers is looking for a 2.2% rise. And while the trade group points out that there are many components to such forecast, the overall trend is tepid: "No matter which metric of performance is used, ICSC projects 2011 U.S. holiday sales are likely to advance at a slower pace than in 2010 as strong economic headwinds continue to persist," says Michael P. Niemira, ICSC's chief economist, in its release. "The 2011 holiday season forecast also envisions a pace of sales considerably slower than during the first half of 2011 since retail sales generally advanced at a faster pace in early 2011 than during the 2010 holiday season."

Kantar Retail is expecting a slightly higher gain of 2.8%, or half of last year's 5.6% increase. Adjusted for inflation, that means a relatively flat holiday. But it also thinks things may actually head south: "If unit volume or inflation-adjusted growth turns negative for retail sales, it would likely coincide with a recession in the overall economy," notes Frank Badillo, senior economist for Kantar Retail, in its release. "While the outlook isn't negative for all retail sectors, it will be driven by the degree to which declining confidence affects spending decisions, particularly for businesses." That would lead to less hiring, cramping people's income and causing them to spend less on the holiday, he says.