• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, February 3, 2012

Sift all the TV advertising news in one big pot. Hmmm... spicy.

Viacom revealed a suddenly soft scatter market in the middle of the fourth quarter. Then one forecaster said the 2012 upfront marketplace starting this spring will be up a strong 8% in the price per thousand viewers. This was followed by the news that General Motors will cancel 50% of its upfront buys – around 30 million -- in the upcoming second quarter. (GM is keeping some big second quarter business intact, such as March’s NCAA Tournament on CBS and TNT.)

What does all this say? That perhaps we don't know that much about the marketplace. 

Some of this can be explained. For its part, GM may have been spending too much on television to begin with -- thus the earth-shaking recent news that it was moving its media agency business from Starcom to Carat.

Viacom's news bears some historical reference: Strong upfront markets are typically followed by weak or modest scatter periods. But we also know something is afoot. (Of course, there was the issue of Nickelodeon’s suddenly lower rating issues to consider).

Increasingly, marketers are restless, believing that shifting media to new-found and hopeful digital platforms could and should be the answer -- even if not all their traditional metrics make sense right now.

An 8% upfront price gain?  Given an average 12% gain in CPMs during last year’s upfront, that figure isn’t so far off, based on estimates that total upfront dollar volume will come in at or near the same levels as a year ago.

Sure media agency executives are pissed when they hear that last bit of information --  because their clients are moaning, "What? More TV price increases! In an age of media fragmentation? How can this be possible?"

It is about the ingredients: television, advertising, cancellations and expectations. A usual business stew.