• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, March 1, 2012

As the “Mad Men” season premiere is 24 days away, it’s worth appreciating how similar the show is to “The Sopranos” with the compelling drama, but also desperately needed injections of humor. “If you took it out, it would be the bleakest, saddest thing in the world,” said “Mad Men” showrunner Matthew Weiner recently.

Follow that with a coming “Vanity Fair” piece, where “Sopranos” mastermind David Chase reportedly says his show was “ambiguous to the point where, to this day, I’m not really sure whether it was a drama or comedy.” Stop pondering: it was like three parts drama, one part comedy – which makes it both.

“Mad Men” will provide an interesting test case for networks. There is found money (100% profits) from online streaming deals. Under an exclusive deal involving studio Lionsgate, Netflix began offering “Mad Men’s” first four seasons last summer. If the catch-up viewing looks to boost interest for the new season, Netflix deals could prove to be a double winner.

In any case, as the wait for more Draper capers narrows, it’s time for this month’s “Leaders & Bleeders”:

LEADERS:

1) CNBC/FIDELITY – Stocks soar in February, so Main Street viewers might tune in for the march to Dow 14,000. CNBC also cuts watershed deal with Fidelity, with dual guarantees using Nielsen and set-top-box (Rentrak) data. Fidelity puts its stamp on emerging Madison Avenue model: brand campaigns as springboards for social media lightning. New effort avoids TV -- going with digital and print -- looking to drive consumers to a microsite it hopes will prompt tweeting. If that works, TV could be part of the next run.

2) NBA – TNT and ESPN should get superb ratings with NFL-like drama in the league. One question: Can LeBron get a championship before Kevin Durant? Another benefit: Much of the excitement is coming out of the country’s two largest markets. New York has Linsanity and L.A. has the matter whether the Clippers will really outshine Kobe. The Knicks’ transformative Jeremy Lin also singlehandedly outscored Glenn Britt, getting the potent head of Time Warner Cable to buckle and sign a carriage deal with MSG.

3) CONAN – Gets a bang with new TBS deal running through 2014, even as ratings haven’t been stellar. The numbers have been improving recently, though, as lead-in from “Big Bang Theory” seems to be providing a lift. New Team Coco synch-to-TV app allows viewers to watch extra content in real time during the show with AT&T as the sponsor. Downside: election year could boost time-period competitors on Comedy Central.              

4) AFRICAN-AMERICAN NETWORKS – Bounce TV launched last fall as a multicast channel, with Toyota as a top-line sponsor, and recently got carriage in New York. Comcast is set to launch Aspire with Magic Johnson this summer, while Revolt with Diddy Combs is getting ready for 2013. BET and TV One ratings are down slightly, but “The Game” continues as a BET tentpole and TV One has docu-drama with former “Law & Order” star S. Epatha Merkerson.

5) CAMELOT COMMUNICATIONS – As Southwest Airlines looks for other another creative agency to join GSD&M, which has worked with it for decades, Camelot continues to steer media for the massive advertiser. Independent Dallas-based Camelot places the airline's ubiquitous ads during football season, while Southwest boosted TV spending 35% over the first nine months of 2011 to $126 million, per Kantar.

BLEEDERS:

1) CW – The CBS/Warner Bros.-owned network is struggling mightily and desperate for a new hit to emerge this fall. Ratings in its core female 18-to-34 demo are down 20% this season by one measure. Former standout “Gossip Girl” has seen a 25% drop. Only one returning show, “One Tree Hill,” has had a ratings bump. But it’s in its final season. Also, “America’s Next Top Model” is fading. Wednesday's debut with a U.K. element had scant viewing. The network, with its younger audience, may be getting some lift from digital viewing, but how much? Still, CBS chief Leslie Moonves has said a Netflix deal will make the CW profitable.

2) “AMERICAN IDOL” – It's been well-reported, ratings are way down. In January, the head of “Idol” studio FremantleMedia -- who wasn’t thrilled with “The X Factor” last fall either -- said there are too many signing competitions. Hmm, NBC would disagree as “The Voice” is the genre’s new idol.

3) PACKAGED GOODS CATEGORY – Both Procter & Gamble and Unilever have signaled plans to slow increases in TV spending this year, while emphasizing digital, Ad Age reports. P&G, however, will air its “Proud Sponsor of Moms” campaign widely on NBC during this summer’s Olympics. Success there with touching creative might send it back into TV heavily.

4) LESLIE MOONVES – The CBS CEO always warns buyers to expect huge price increases in the upfront market. Yet, he's gone soft with next year’s Super Bowl. Sure, he's suggested the network will land about $4 million for spots in 2013, which would be a record. But, that seems only modestly ambitious for him. His projection would be a 14% increase over this year. But, NBC transformed the market with a 17% bump.

5) MORE PALIN REALITY – Lifetime will launch a series with Sarah Palin’s daughter Bristol as a single mother. Late last year, the Hollywood Reporter said the former VP candidate wants to sell a series focusing on husband Todd’s career as a winning snowmobile racer. How about this for reality? Republicans unenthused by their presidential candidates could be looking for a savior. Would it be Sarah?