• by August 25, 2003

A Boy Named Shoe-In: Most of its viewers weren't even alive when he reigned atop the country- western charts in the '60s and '70s, but Johnny Cash is considered a shoe-in to win this year's MTV Video Music Awards, even if he may not be well enough to be there to accept it. Cash, 71 and suffering from a debilitating disease, was nominated for his cover of Nine Inch Nails' "Hurt," which he performs in a poignant video that seems to underscore his life with drugs. And if he can make it to the Radio City Music Hall event, watch for Cash to walk the line and take the stage in a sentimental victory over more contemporary artists like Eminem, Justin Timberlake and Missy Elliott for Best Video of The Year. In a sad and ironic note, the event could end up reviving his career in much the same way an appearance by crooner Tony Bennett did several years ago at the VMAs.

Fall TV Season Will Be Another Reality Check: The network prime-time bar continues to get lower and lower as major media agencies are redefining the meaning of hits. By its current standard - a "show that significantly increases the ratings in its time period" - the programming gurus at Optimedia predict the 2003-04 season will fail to produce a single breakout hit. Instead, the agency says buyers must be content with handful of "potential hits," including Fox's "The O.C.," "Arrested Development" and "Joe Millionaire 2;" NBC's "Coupling" and "Lyon's Den;" CBS' "NCIS" and "Two and a Half Men;" and UPN's "Eve." Most alarming of all in Optimedia's scenario, is the fact that ABC - the network most in need of a hit - won't have any. ABC, in fact, leads in new series "misses," according to the media shop. As a result, ABC once again is expected to get left at the starting gates, while the real horse race is decided between CBS and NBC. But the real winner, predicts Optimedia TV chief Bob Flood will be the reality TV genre. He estimates 7% of the new prime-time fare are comprised of reality programming versus only 4% a year ago. And as further holes develop in the nets' new prime-time schedules, he predicts reality fare will fill it up even more of the schedule.

Peacock Could Dominate Cable's Flock: What exactly does NBC stand for these days? Surely, it's not the National Broadcasting Co. More likely, it means Nothing-But-Cable. At least that's what an observer would have to assume based on the General Electric unit's bid to acquire Vivendi Universal's U.S. entertainment assets, the latest in a long succession of deals and one that might finally give NBC Cable a dominant foothold in the cable TV advertising marketplace. NBC, you may recall was the last of the Big 3 networks to get on the cable bandwagon, but judging by it is acquisition strategy and the talk of senior management, it is making up for lost time. NBC got into the cable business almost begrudgingly and not until a former cable exec, Bob Wright, was put in charge of the peacock network. Wright, with a heavy assist from then NBC Cable chief Tom Rogers (most recently of Primedia fame), quickly embarked on a cable diversification strategy that is still playing out today. Their first foray, the acquisition of Financial News Network, was used as the foundation for CNBC. The network later used its retransmission consent rights with cable operators to launch America's Talking, which ultimately became MSNBC. Along the way, NBC has had largely passive stakes in some other key cable assets, namely Court TV and Cablevision's Rainbow networks, one of which, Bravo, was acquired wholly last year. Even NBC's acquisition of Telemundo could be viewed as part of NBC's niche network strategy. But even with this relatively strong portfolio of assets, NBC remains an also-ran to big cable players like AOL Time Warner and Viacom and Disney. That could all change rapidly if the Vivendi board accepts GE's offer, which would add USA Network, Sci Fi Channel and the Universal library to NBC's cable trove. Though it would take a while to digest, the deal would finally give NBC Cable the kind of critical mass it needs to leverage the cable advertising marketplace and with cable operators.