• by September 2, 2003

Are predictions of a rebound in consumer magazine ad spending premature? That appears to be the case, judging by Stuart Elliott's round-up on the September issues of the nation's leading consumer magazines in today's New York Times. We know this how? Not because the September issue of Vogue magazine is coming in at "four pounds, eight ounces," according to proud poppa and publisher Tom Florio. While that would be a premature weight for a newborn, it is a lofty weight for the title's September issue. The reason we know the magazine industry has not yet been weaned off its ad page recession is because for every publication touting a record month, at least two are reporting some slippage in ad pages for September. An even worse forward indicator is the fact that September may be more of a back-to-school phenomenon than a long-term correction in magazine ad page volume, as demand remains questionable through year-end 2003. That would be a very dicey proposition for publishers, because it is the last few months of the year that will set the tone for annualized 2004 magazine rate negotiations, the publishing industry's equivalent to the network TV upfront. And just like the TV business when a weak scatter marketplace foreshadows lackluster upfront demand, any weakness in November and December magazine ad page volume could signal a tough 2004 for the print industry. One wild card may be an extra boost from this year's American Magazine Conference in October. The Riff hears the Magazine Publishers of America is considering some new research - possibly a ground-breaking magazine readership study - that might be unveiled during the conference and could be just the thing to get Madison Avenue all perked up for a big year-end push in magazine pages.

Talent Contest: Three years after a Hollywood strike tied up TV and radio commercial production for nearly half a year, Madison Avenue is set to begin a new round of negotiations with talent unions representing actors, producers, writers and directors of commercials. But unlike 2000 when a still robust employment market gave the Joint Policy Committee of the ANA and the Four As little leverage, the mood in the fall of 2003 could be a little more advantageous for the ad industry. "A lot of people are still out of work and it would be hard to imagine any of them wanting to stand on a picket line for another six months," one of the industry's labor negotiators tells the Riff. Then again, with pent up demand for new ad campaigns building as the economy continues to expand, will marketers stand for delays in commercial production. The Riffs prediction: Look for lots of spots featuring royalties- free talent including animals, robots and animation in next year's campaigns.

Bermuda short: In this era of heightened corporate scrutiny, it's nice to know some things don't change. Even as independent auditors scour agency books and as compliance departments of major shops are looking askance at all forms of industry graft, NBC is offering a twist to the traditional Olympic boondoggle. Instead of simply providing free trips to the 2004 games in Athens, Greece, to its largest advertisers, an accepted, if questionable industry practice, the peacock network is offering sponsors the option of taking a complementary trip to Bermuda instead. It seems NBC is making this accommodation because some ad execs have expressed concerns about foreign travel in general and the security of the Olympic games in particular. While such accommodations are not unusual - other networks have offered close-to-home travel perks in lieu of trips to remote Olympic locales - that was before regulators began looking into such matters.