Commentary
Apple's TV Move: You Say You Want A Revolution, Well, You Know...
- by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, August 17, 2012
News flash: Apple TV might not change the TV world. Sorry about that.
Want a TV business savior? You might have to look at other wannabe TV-changing companies -- Google, Comcast, maybe Facebook.
Right now, Apple can't do for TV what it seemingly did for the music business. There are too many powerful and monied TV companies involved, and revolution is hard to come by. You need the right business environment, people, perhaps some on-the-ground mass protest.
A report in the Wall Street Journal says Apple is now looking to sell cable companies, as well as satellite and teleco multichannel TV programmers, the next set-top box. Not a TV set. This would be a major shift on the Apple TV efforts.
Scant information has come in about an Apple TV set – a device that could capture the imagination of consumers, possibly magically sync all possible information to every possible device and app consumers own, which news reports would show people lined up around the block to buy.
advertisement
advertisement
No surprise here: The WSJ story says Apple is getting flatly turned down for its set-top box plan, which is familiar ground. When Apple started up its Apple TV unit some years ago -- an initial set-top device -- the rub was that it couldn't attract a critical mass of top TV providers to come on board. So this latest initiative is a rerun, for sure.
Consumer products come and go. But fancy life-changing TV-related equipment can be tough sells. The original Apple TV effort is one of the company's rare lapses with a less-than-stellar sales performance.
Manufacturing a new TV set isn't what it used to be. Consumers want a lot more, like a choice of a services that attach easily to their new TV equipment, and access to good apps.
Then there’s the issue of the “right business environment”: Apple was able to make its iTunes work because the music business was in major disarray, with lower CD sales and rampant piracy. While the TV industry has its problems, it still pulls in major billions for TV rights holders. Because consumers are still buying, a real TV revolution isn't in sight.
Wayne Friedman is West Coast Editor of MediaPost. You can reach Wayne at wayne@mediapost.com.
Just because a revolution isn't yet in sight, doesn't mean it's not coming. The major disarray in the music business was not yet in sight before Napster, but you are correct about timing. Some of us see the TV business beginning to unravel, as multichannel providers begin to bleed subscribers and regulators rethink spectrum allocation. Cord-cutters are less scary than cord-nevers. Maybe it won't be Apple poised to take advantage when the time comes, but surely the time will come. Change happens.
I would say Xbox is the next big thing in the living room. They already have deals in place with the major players and have global penetration. Plus you don't have to buy a new set top to play. Add in Kinect voice control and the massive investments MSFT is continuing to make and Apple will have a very hard time beating them. Windows 8 will take the experience to greater depths.