• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, October 4, 2003

After eight consecutive years of declining ratings points, the national TV syndication marketplace certainly looked as if it needed a doctor going into the 2002-03 TV season. And that's just what it got. After just one season Paramount's "Dr. Phil," syndication is entering the 2003-04 season in its healthiest position in nearly a decade, but it also faces more competition than ever before and a new assault from an unexpected source, cable network TBS, which is using sex - a staple of syndicated talk shows like "Dr. Phil's" - to provide an alternative to some of syndication's most lucrative shows, off-network TV comedies.

Last week, TBS unveiled plans to sell the off-network run of HBO's steamy "Sex And The City" series to advertisers in a package that is aimed directly at the off-network syndication marketplace. A specially edited version of "Sex," which contains footage shot specifically for a commercial TV audience, is being sold much the way broadcast syndicators have pitched top-rated off-network shows such as "Seinfeld" and "Friends" and at equivalent prices.

In fact, TBS will preempt the normal off-network syndication market by 15 months, when "Sex" debuts on TBS in June for an exclusive window before going into the syndication marketplace. It is that exclusivity, plus the proven HBO ratings track record and a bucketful of buzz that has the Turner sales team cocky enough to be seeking off-network syndication prices that are expected to fetch well in excess of $100,000 per :30 from marketers in the fashion, cosmetics, beverage and other categories targeting the kind of young adults the basic cable window of the series is expected to draw.

Syndication Household Ratings Deliver: 1998-2003

2002-03     1,242 
2001-02     1,195 
2000-01     1,267 
1999-00     1,349 
1998-99     1,410 

Source: Boston Media Consultants analysis of data from Nielsen Media Research.

David Levy, president of entertainment sales and marketing and Turner Sports at Turner Broadcastings System would not venture a ratings guarantee on the 15-month run, but he acknowledged the sales strategy was very much like an off-network syndication premiere. The on difference is that Turner is seeking to limit the number of sponsors to one primary advertiser that will own two minutes per hour, and four participating sponsors for the 15-month run. The primary sponsor, he said, would participate in all of Turner's promotions of the series, which will be ample and which tie into a broader re-branding effort to reposition TBS as a hot, young adult channel.

"Internally, we've been describing it as a move from Mayberry to Manhattan," said Levy, referring to the locations of early TBS staples like the "Andy Griffith Show" and its new fare like "Seinfeld," "Friends" and now "Sex."

Levy acknowledged there might be some initial reticence among some marketers to buy into "Sex," given its provocative subject matter about a group of promiscuous single women, but he said that objection would be quickly overcome by advertiser screenings of the commercial TV edited versions of the series, which he said are tamer and "funnier" than the original HBO run.

While the show, which will be scheduled in primetime, will compete more with broadcast and cable networks than syndication time periods, the sales strategy is aimed top-tier off-network syndication shows, as well as mid-tier broadcast network series ad budgets.

Meanwhile, as the syndication marketplace experiences an expansion in GRPs (gross rating points), it also is experiencing a contraction in suppliers (see table below), says Tim Duncan, president of Boston Media Consultants, a syndication industry research and sales consultant.

"Ninety-nine percent of syndication is done by 10 companies, all of which are tied to the major studios," says Duncan, noting, "This used to be a business where small guys could get in if they had a good show, the King Brothers being a prime example. That's no longer the case."

Duncan says the change has been a mixed blessing for the syndication marketplace. On the one hand making it far easier to launch promising new shows like "Dr. Phil" because of the control syndicators now have over TV station groups, but making it difficult to develop independent product.

"There's been a general tendency towards concentration and that is having an impact on diversity," acknowledged Duncan. This has been a key issue among media buyers for two reasons: 1) It has limited the type of programs being developed in the marketplace; and 2) It has limited the number of suppliers, making it difficult for agencies to negotiate prices.

The proposed loosening of the TV station ownership caps now being debated by Congress could have an even more profound impact on the marketplace, if the major media companies that also own the top syndication studios also are allowed to expand their control over the TV station marketplace.

On the other hand, Duncan points out that it was the ability of Paramount to leverage its distribution base that contributed to the rapid success of "Dr. Phil," which he says was the most successful opening of a syndicated series since the debut of "Oprah Winfrey."

Duncan said it still is too early to determine what will happen with syndication's share of GRPs and ad dollars will be during the 2003-04 season, but the syndication ad marketplace, at least, has been one of the healthiest during recent scatter markets. And if their ratings deliver holds up, syndicators likely will be able to capitalize on any short-term demand by releasing some of their makegood inventory back into the sales marketplace.

Share Of Syndication Audience

                          2002-03   1998-99 
King World (Viacom):         21.7%     15.5% 
Warner Bros.:                17.5%     15.0% 
Paramount
(Viacom):          13.8%     12.6% 
Twentieth TV (News Corp):    11.8%      5.9% 
Sony (Columbia):              9.2%     10.6% 
Buena Vista (Disney):         7.9%      8.3% 
Universal/MCA
(NBC*):         5.7%      1.1% 
Tribune:                      5.2%      3.4% 
MGM/NBC:                      4.3%      1.6% 
WoWF (WWE):                   1.4%      2.3% 
Top 10
Syndicators:          99.0%     76.0% 

Source: Boston Media Consultants analysis, Nielsen and other data. *Pending.