Commentary

The Success of Digital Newspaper Sites Saved My 2003 Predictions

Back in August of last year, I wrote a column that contained three predictions:

Rich media, at that point, the darling of "why our business is growing," will become much more. By quarter three 2004, 55 percent or more of all ads served on top-50 destination and media sites will be rich media.

People who should know better still will not understand online privacy.

Newspaper Web sites will continue to enjoy a robust increase in revenue and prestige in the overall media mix.

Despite the growth of rich media, I probably was wrong about the first one. Destination and media sites serve rich media much more than others, but I doubt that the aggregate is as high as 55 percent. Nevertheless, it's still pretty high - and still growing very quickly. Analysts I spoke to estimated that it could be as high as 35 percent, up from maybe 25 percent, and ad serving companies claim it could be as high as 45 percent or so, but they're in the business of inflating these numbers sometimes.

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The Jupiter projections I referred to last week make it clear that rich media and in-stream video should only continue to grow, especially on major sites that manage their own monetization.

The second prediction was a no-brainer. But, I didn't understand at the time why it was. People in our business really don't understand online privacy much better than they did a year ago, in my opinion. But, the fact is that companies not collecting personally identifiable information can still have meaningful privacy problems. I wouldn't have agreed with that statement until recently. Today, it's irrefutable. Some companies are managing it better than others, as Thursday's fascinating Q & A with D. Reed Freeman of Claria in MediaDailyNews, made clear.

That's correct. I was one of the ones who didn't understand it. I hear you giggling.

The third prediction was the one that was easy. Newspaper sites have been hitting the ball way out of the park in the past year, and their growth in prestige within the overall media mix, and not just the digital media mix, is pretty compelling.

Much has been made of the success of the Wall Street Journal Online, and Washington Post Digital, both of whom had to catch up to New York Times Digital. But, the place I'd like to place the focus today is squarely on the Real Cities Network, which is operated by Knight Ridder Digital.

I spoke to Hugh McGoran, vice president of national advertising for Real Cities about the success of digital newspapers in general, and he made it clear that it's not just one or two things that have made this a growth business.

"Being able to provide our advertiser partners an easy way to reach national and regional audiences through trusted local properties is a big part of the success of our network," said McGoran. "But, digital newspapers across the board have become much better at the value adds for both marketers and users.

"Partnerships with shopping and directory services, user registration and adoption of IAB (Interactive Advertising Bureau) standards and rich media platforms have compelled advertisers to turn to us as an effective way to get their message out. With solid e-mail products and vertical channels, we're looking forward to even stronger growth."

With so much campaign money already being spent on newspaper sites, I'll look forward to seeing what sort of results the major players get this year. And I'll have to come up with more creative predictions come September.

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