• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 4, 2013

TV brands still carry some weight. But they are fraying around the edges.

Replace a Jay Leno with a Conan O'Brien? The "Tonight" show didn't hold up so well in the fall of 2009. What about Jimmy Fallon in 2014? There continues to be broadcast ratings erosion -- in all dayparts. If Fallon keeps Leno's numbers  -- exactly the same as they are today – that would  be a victory.

No doubt this is part of why NBC is moving quickly, not doing an announcement a la Conan O'Brien, which gave viewers and marketers a five-year head start to get use to the idea.

Now let's turn to the other side of the TV programming day, the morning. The "Today" show? Matt Lauer is still around. But Ann Curry isn't. That change hasn't been enough. Over the last several months ABC's "Good Morning America" has taken over the top spot. (Admittedly, some would say the Curry-Lauer team was already showing signs of wear and tear).

MTV knew it couldn't keep the cast of "Jersey Shore" together for long. So it moved on. While the show had a great TV brand name, viewers -- especially young viewers -- are savvy and like a lot of change. Could the network have substituted say, a character called The Constellation for The Situation? A Wooki for a Snooki?

For years NBC's "Law & Order" and all its variations had many changing characters. But this TV show came from an earlier time. "L&O" mastermind Dick Wolf does know brands, having worked on the Procter & Gamble business earlier in his career.

Stories had it that when Wolf heard that NBC's programming chief Warren Littlefield had  troubles in the 1990s with the new hot cast of "Friends," Wolf suggested firing one actor at a time until the remaining actors cried uncle. That never happened.

CBS' "Two and a Half Men" seemingly went on without Charlie Sheen. The first year after his departure, the show's ratings soared. This was probably due -- in large part -- to some curiosity about Ashton Kutcher.  The comedy is down significantly from a year ago.

Whether NBC was responding to new 11:35 p.m. competition from ABC's moving "Jimmy Kimmel Live," or was just wishy-washy about continuing Jay Leno's contract past the fall of 2014, network  execs had to make a choice. They were thinking about the next ten, 15 or 20 years of the "Tonight" show brand -- or what kind of TV product it will morph into by then.