• by Joe Mandese , March 2, 2004

Media planning is still equal parts art and science, but it is beginning to integrate increasingly scientific tools. This was among the key takeaways from a conference held in New York Tuesday that spanned two emerging but often misunderstood developments in the field of media planning: econometric modeling and communications channel planning.

While neither of those topics exactly rolls off the tongue, each is transforming the practice of media planning in its own way: econometric modeling--and especially marketing mix modeling--by tying media plans directly to sales results, and communications channel planning by challenging the definitions of media to include non-traditional channels such as promotion, events, and public relations. One thing that both panels indicated has not yet changed significantly is Madison Avenue's dependency on television advertising.

That conclusion was evident during the event, which was aptly hosted by TelevisionWeek, said consultant Erwin Ephron, who moderated the panel on communications channel planning. Referring to the econometric modeling panel that preceded his, Ephron said: "I would think that there is television and nothing else. I think print was mentioned once."

The story wasn't much different during Ephron's panel. While the panelists did mention other media, they indicated that they are still challenged by the influence of big brand agencies schooled on television.

"Of course, they push us to broadcast television," said Carla Loffredo, senior partner-strategic planning director at MindShare, referring to the heavy influence of the media shop's WPP sibling brand agencies: JWT, O&M, and Y&R.

She alluded to the "financial issues surrounding integration," but said that MindShare's own business model helps it remain indifferent to those pressures. "We get paid regardless of whether we use television," she said.

Still, she said that the powerful draw of the TV advertising bias was difficult to resist unless the client was behind the strategy. All of the panelists agreed that client market goals were the most decisive factor influencing the "neutrality" of media plans, whether they de-emphasized television or included non-traditional media as well.

Both Loffredo and Enza Chiodi, executive vice president-director of planning at PHD, cited Unilever--a client they both work for--as a prime example of a marketer that has mandated a channel-neutral approach to media planning.

Chiodi said Unilever has written a "bible" on it, and has institutionalized compensation arrangements with the managers of its operations to ensure that it happens. As a rule, she said, the neutrality of channel planning depends on a client's goals, but the institutional nature of an agency holding company can have a profound impact on how media units execute.

"Can an agency that's tied to a creative shop that primarily depends on television truly be neutral?" she asked.

The panelists agreed that it is imperative for media agencies to get out in front of the advertising process to influence the channel selection even before ads are created.

"If you're creating a message and you don't know where it's going to run, you're missing an opportunity," challenged Marston Allen, senior vice president-director of communications architecture at Universal McCann.

Allen, who believes that anything can be a medium for communicating an advertising message, said if media shops don't get out in front of the process "we're going to continue to end up with 30-second commercials as opposed to something else that communicates better."

PHD's Chiodi said the process need not be foreboding for planners--not that she considers it refreshing and an opportunity for media shops to demonstrate their creativity.

The art of media planning was also reaffirmed by the econometrics panel, which was comprised of executives from third-party modeling firms like MMA and Insight Partners, as well as some strategic thinkers at major media shops.

Gregg Liebman, senior vice president-research at Zenith Media, said the buzz over econometrics is reaching the magnitude that media optimizers attained during the late 1990s. He said that they can be a valuable part of a planner's tool chest, but they should not be looked at as a "panacea."

Mary Ellen Vincent, senior vice president-director of research, insights, and accountability at MediaVest, agreed. "I think it is a very useful media planning tool. It answers some very important questions that we have all been trying to get at, such as 'How much is enough?'" she said, advocating a "holistic approach" to media planning that incorporates modeling as part of the tools and value judgments traditionally made by planners.

"It is very important that media planners are steering this function," she said. Among other things, she noted that econometric models typically focus on relatively short-term variables such as immediate product sales, which negate the long-term effects of advertising that builds brand equity and ensures future sales of a product.