• by Sarah Mahoney , October 6, 2015

Forget your troubling stock market and downbeat world news: After a few years of humbugging, a new survey from NPD says more people are looking forward to the holidays this year. And while that may not translate into much more spending—with the majority of people hoping to maintain their spending this year, not increase it—more are feeling better about seasonal spirit.

The survey, based on about 3,600 adults in the U.S., finds that more people agree with statements like “giving to those less fortunate is an important part of the season,” “I’m looking forward to the holidays” and “holidays provide a break from everything that is going on the world.” And fewer people agree with glum statements, such as “preparing for the holidays is so much work that I’m not sure it’s worth it.”

A higher percentage of respondents think they’ll spend more on gifts and celebrations this year: 15%, versus 12% last year. And only 16% are planning to cut back on their budget, down from 20% in 2014. That’s the smallest gap between the “spend more” and “spend less” crowds in three years, which NPD says bodes well for the months ahead,

 “Consumers are ready to spend for the holidays, more so than in recent years,” says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for the Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research company, in its report. “However, manufacturers and retailers need to pay close attention to what is driving the consumer mindset, and deliver product that anticipates inevitable shifts in their thinking over the course of the season. Positive consumer perceptions combined with holiday promotions could drive early impulse purchases, but the market has to deliver enticing product that consumers want and need in order to build on that momentum and keep them spending.”

If consumers spend what they say they will—always a big “if” in seasonal forecasts—NPD says it will amount to $619, 5% more than what those in last year’s survey said. (So far, other seasonal predictions range from lower, with Deloitte predicting an increase of 3.5 to 4%, and higher, with eMarketer anticipating a 5.7% gain. The National Retail Federation plans to release its projections later this week.) 

NPD also asked about shopping methods, and two-thirds of its sample say they intend to do research before shopping, including online searches and customer reviews.