• by Karl Greenberg , January 5, 2016

It’s superlatives again for the auto business, thanks to searing hot sales of crossovers and SUVs to cap a blistering year of new car and truck sales. 

Automakers across the board reported best-ever, or best-in-years numbers. GM, whose full-year retail sales were up 8%, reported that Chevrolet and GMC sold 1.2 million trucks in 2015, up 14% compared to 2014. The automaker reported that sales of the Chevrolet Equinox crossover were up for the seventh consecutive year, and that five other crossovers -- the Chevrolet Traverse, the Buick Encore, the GMC Acadia and Terrain, and the Cadillac SRX -- had their best-ever annual sales. 

Ford, in its December sales report, said SUVs were up 13% versus a year ago, marking the best December for the segment since 2003. Ford said sales of its Escape compact crossover hit a record for the full year, driven by a record December. The automaker’s redesigned Edge also peeled out of dealerships last month, with deliveries up 29%. The new Explorer saw sales increase 14%.

Some numbers boggle the imagination: Fiat Chrysler Automobile said it enjoyed its best month in 90 years, and its 69th month of gains -- largely because of Jeep, whose sales increased 42% for its best monthly sales ever and best annual U.S. sales ever, because of best-ever sales of Jeep Cherokee, Jeep Compass and Jeep Renegade.

Nissan reported its best-ever calendar year as well, and a record for December, driven by sales of haulers: Overall sales of Nissan crossovers, trucks and SUVs set a December record, up 41%. Sales of the Nissan Rogue crossover were up 78%, and sales of the Murano crossover increased 62%.

Toyota, whose sales for 2015 were up over 5%, hit December records for its SUVs. For example, sales of both the RAV4 compact SUV (up 38.6%) and for Highlander were best-ever for December. Lexus, which reported an all-time, any-month sales record, enjoyed a 26.5% increase in truck sales last month.

But can all of this continue? The experts at market research firm IHS say yes, although not as stupendously. This year and next it will continue, albeit at a much more leisurely pace, with SUV sales gains dropping from double-digit to low singles as automakers jostle each other for access to a slowing consumer spigot. It probably doesn’t help that companies are adding even more crossovers and SUVs, particularly in smaller vehicles like Mazda’s CX-3, and Chevy Trax. “After two years of growth at or near 6%, the shift will lead to a more competitive market,” says the firm.

IHS reports that the fastest-growing volume segment in 2015, with a huge 48% growth, was the non-premium subcompact SUV, thanks to the above-mentioned new vehicles as well as the new Fiat 500X and Jeep Renegade. 

“Most nameplates saw gains well north of 20%,” says the firm. For the next two years, non-premium compact SUVs (which passed compact cars to be the second-best-selling segment) will be the fastest sales growth segment year-over-year. But U.S. buyers bought more than twice as many non-premium mid-size SUVs than non subcompact SUVs last year.  

Overall, IHS predicts the crossover segment growth this year will be about 5%, which is still nearly twice expected growth for the overall market, per the company. In 2017 it will drop to 1.2%. That is partly because of fewer entries this year from Nissan and Scion, respectively. It is also slowing because of market dynamics — it’s a mature market that has gone from 11 entries in 2013 to an expected 19 entries in 2017. “New vehicles coming on board in 2016 and 2017 will have a more difficult time carving out segment share, compared with those introduced in 2015 on a significant market upswing,” says IHS.