Commentary

Fear TV Displacement -- And Then Realize Everything Will Probably Be The Same

by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, January 11, 2016

Digital video will displace “TV” by the end of the decade. Robert Kyncl, chief business officer of YouTube, said as muchat the recent Consumer Electronics Show. As far as TV Watch can tell, Kyncl didn’t use air quotes around the word “TV’ -- but he might as well have.

That’s because TV-network-based media companies -- those that produce “premium” TV content like the familiar-looking dramas, comedies and other fare -- will still be a major factor in content, perhaps the dominant factor. The delivery system, however, will be different.

So in that regard “digital video” will replace “TV.” Kyncl said digital video would make up 60% of all video consumption in four years.

Now you need to ask another question or two, like: How much of that digital video will be premium content from the TV network companies -- and how much other stuff? Will consumers care?

Perhaps a decade or so ago, when YouTube was starting out, some estimated that “user-generated video” would be a big factor. Then YouTube realized perhaps this revenue model was limited.

In 2012, YouTube invested more than $100 million into some 60 new channels for well-known entertainers and media brands. That didn’t work out so well, but YouTube continues to try with other “premium” efforts -- especially seeing how the market has grown. In late 2015, YouTube launched Red, a new ad-free subscription service.

To be sure, YouTube owns a big chunk of the digital video world -- estimated by some to be $1.55 billion, climbing to just under $2 billion in two years.

Analyzing all of digital video, especially for traditional TV network content providers, one needs to look at not only at Netflix, but at the networks’ own digital platforms like Hulu, as well as a growing number of other platforms.

So if digital video overtakes TV, what does it “really” mean and how does it “affect” your personal entertainment? Find your own quotes.

digital, tv, youtube

3 comments about "Fear TV Displacement -- And Then Realize Everything Will Probably Be The Same".

Check to receive email when comments are posted.

Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, January 11, 2016 at 3:20 p.m.
If Kyncl actually believes that digital video will be bigger than all "TV" viewing in only four years he is in for a huge surprise, but I guess anyone can say just about anything these days. After all, weren't we told that half of all media would be sold and bought programmatically, last year?
Reply

James Siciliano from Channels:360, January 11, 2016 at 3:51 p.m.

The net of it all is that TV Content is TV Content is TV Content. The most highly viewed "digital content" will be Premimum TV content... that content that is produced by the Networks or by producers that have agreements with the networks. "Digtital video" will NOT replace TV.
Alternate screens are becoming TV. What's changing here is the WAY in which TV content is being viewed. When you combine viewership of TV content viewed on linear TV with TV content being viewed on digital platforms, what you get is more TV content being consumed than ever before.

ida tarbell from s-t broadcasting, January 12, 2016 at 1:35 p.m.

This isbn'[t realy news. I told some friends this is underway a few nights ago at a restaurant. Satellite and cable will both go on the net. They'll be just like they are now. There'll be all kinds of other options and many more choices outside conventional tv, satellite and cable. This is the result of the cable channels resisting ala carte. Today there are 409 scripted shows. Tomorrow there'll be way more choices than that. Advertising television will have lost its clout. Cable and satellite are a mess now. The channels aren't arranged very well. Many of the channels available are a collection of colliginous junk. Network and Indy tv will have to drop their goody two shoes approach and take real risks with programming. NBC frantically pushed a new J-Lo tv series on the Globes broadcast. It will be boringly conventional. Gathering customers for advertisers will not be the new wave.