• by Joe Mandese , February 3, 2005

Advertising monitor turned forecaster TNS Media Intelligence (formerly CMR), Wednesday issued a strong outlook for 2005, projecting the post-Olympics/presidential election year would see ad spending expand by 5.1 percent to $150.5 million in the media it measures. That's a pretty health growth rate considering that so-called "hammock" years following Olympics/election years, typically experience only modest growth due to the high basis of comparison. TNS estimates that U.S. ad spending grew by 10.6 percent in 2004, but President-CEO Steven Fredericks attributed the strong 2005 outlook due to the stability of the U.S. economy and the fact that advertising appears to be back on an expansion mode.

Not surprisingly, TNS projects that the Internet will be the fastest growing ad medium, though at its projected 11.2 percent growth rate, TNS' forecast is among the most conservative for the medium. Other forecasters have projected upwards of 30 percent rates of growth for online ad spending in 2005.

Television, especially Spanish-language and cable TV networks are the next most dynamic ad media, though TNS also has an especially robust outlook for outdoor and even consumer magazines, which are expected to grow 8.2 percent and 6.1 percent respectively in 2005, faster than the overall rate of ad budget expansion.

Spot TV and the B-to-B magazine marketplace are expected to languish.

Forecasted 2005 Ad Growth By Medium

Internet                     11.2% 
Spanish Language TV           9.4% 
Cable Network TV
9.3% 
Outdoor                       8.2% 
Consumer/Sunday Magazines     6.1% 
Syndication TV                5.7% 
Newspapers                    5.1% 
Radio                         5.1%

Network TV                    2.9% 
B-to-B Magazines              1.5% 
Spot TV                       0.6% 

Source: TNS Media Intelligence. Estimates are based on TNSMI internal analyses .