Commentary

Will The Clinton, Trump Nominations Affect Party Loyalty?

by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, May 12, 2016

With the general election in everyone’s sights, there has been talk of significant crossover between Democrats and Republicans, considering both candidates’ heavily below-average approval ratings, even within their own parties.

FiveThirtyEight wrote last week that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the most disliked nominees in the last 10 presidential cycles at this point in the race. The “strongly unfavorable” rating for Trump nationwide surpasses 50%, whereas Clinton’s is hovering just below 40%.

Following the vote in West Virginia on Tuesday, exit polls showed that an incredible one-third of state Democrats expect to vote for Donald Trump come November, regardless of who ends up being the Democratic nominee.

This would be bad news for Hillary Clinton if these numbers had appeared in a state more liberal than West Virginia. Despite Clinton’s imprudent comments on the coal industry, Democrats in the state are significantly more conservative than the average Democrat.

According to CNN, almost 40% of Democratic voters in West Virginia expressed a desire for a “less liberal” president than Barack Obama. In contrast, Obama has a 52% job approval rating, stretching across both parties, as well as the non-affiliated.

So, not much should be extrapolated from many West Virginia Democrats, who sound averse to Clinton. Other pieces of this labyrinthine puzzle: Clinton beat out Obama in West Virginia by a huge margin in 2008 and according to Mark Salter, former top John McCain adviser, conservatives should actually be flocking to the former New York senator.

Salter spoke with Glenn Thrush of Politico on his podcast “Off Message” to give his take on the nominees. Salter explained: “My point is that if my only choice is Trump or Hillary, I’ll vote for her.” He added: “It’s because she’s the more conservative choice, [Trump is] not a conservative.”

Unlike what is happening on the GOP side, no career Democratic operative has publicly defended voting for Trump over Clinton in November. The talk that Sanders supporters would switch to Trump, while maybe partly true in West Virginia, is untrue elsewhere in the country.

A CNN/ORC poll conducted at the end of April found that Sanders voters prefer Clinton over Trump by a margin of 86-to-10. That is compared to non-Trump Republican voters, who do favor their presumptive Republican nominee, but by a smaller margin of 70-to-24.

Will there be a crossover between the parties? There always is. Will this cycle change the map of American politics? Maybe, but the movement may well be concentrated within just one of the parties: the GOP.

campaigns, politics, trends

2 comments about "Will The Clinton, Trump Nominations Affect Party Loyalty?".

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George Watson from Plain English, May 12, 2016 at 6:20 p.m.
Maybe Sanders' 51% win was protest vote, but the right of center neoliberal, Hillary Clinton did not seem to benefit from the polls referenced above.

Perhaps Hillary has bigger fish to fry, or bacon to save as the case might be, since the remaining primary states may also lean toward Sanders. While Sanders may not offset the delegate advantage the Clinton campaign obtained from the DNC's thumb on the scales or convenient errors in election proceedings, Hillary's poll numbers against Trump may dictate a different outcome if Democrats want to win in November.

And while the GOP has been slowly dying from self-inflicted wounds since the ascendence of the Tea Party and a return to theocracy as a principal dog whistle, Conservatives will not let the lack of class or intellectual compatibility stand in the way of uniting their demagoguery and fear mongering. They never have, so why would they start now?

The Democratic Party on the other hand, having sold out labor and liberals a generation ago must now confront the progressive Political Revolution bent on Reform or Revolt. Neoliberalism isn't dead in Washngton quite yet or among the Black Community that is just beginning to realize they were had, but there's no reason to believe the rich will rule the Democratic Party longer that the one or two election cycles needed to clean house... or build a new one.

Trump may be rotten, but he's authentic rotten, and that still sells in America. Regardless of what snake oil the DNC gets paid to promote, the people aren't buying it any longer. Sanders is both progressive and authentic, and if his poll numbers are an indication, that's what's selling and the best bet for change the Middle and Working Classes are going to insist on.
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Philip Rosenstein from Law360 replied, May 12, 2016 at 7:08 p.m.

Very interesting, George - you hit on some very significant points in your comment. Thank you for adding color to the column and for a compelling take on the 2016 political landscape.