• by Masha Geller , July 10, 2002

Given what we’ve all been through in the past few years, the online ad industry is full of skeptics and nothing inspires more doubt than forecasts of the future. Still, there is one man whose predictions make everyone take notice. That man is Universal McCann's Robert Coen, who yesterday trimmed his forecast for increased ad spending in the U.S. this year to 2.1% due to weakness in the magazine and cable TV markets.

Coen said he expects U.S. ad spending to grow 2.1% to $236.2 billion, down from his estimate last December for a growth rate of 2.4%. Coen said that he was optimistic then, but he’s pessimistic now, his reason being the weakness in the stock market, which has hurt advertising spending by financial service companies, subsequently spreading to other advertisers.

"The stock market does make me nervous,” Coen said, “and there are a lot of companies that are watching for profit levels and becoming more cautious."

Coen’s pessimism, of course, is not quite as pronounced as Zenith Optimedia’s. The firm recently said that it expects U.S. media spending to decline 1.2%.

John Perriss, CEO of Zenith Optimedia Group recently told AdAge that "some advertising categories that powered the 1990s boom -- such as telecom, technology and financial services -- won't again spend like they did then, at least in the foreseeable future, and media fragmentation -- via multiple cable channels and other media -- means marketers' spending is being spread thinly among more media. Through it all, marketers are changing the way -- and the amount -- they spend to market products and are looking with more interest at alternatives beyond traditional advertising."

Coen’s forecast is in line with CMR, which also recently said that U.S. ad spending should rise 2.5% this year, bolstered by political advertising, growth in the Spanish-language media market, and strong advance sales in broadcast television.

Only time will tell whose crystal ball is clearer.