Electoral Map Tightens For Trump

In the opinion of many pundits and politicians across the political spectrum, the chances of a Donald Trump presidency are waning fast. Even Trump’s own campaign manager recently admitted that they are trailing the colossus of a campaign that is bolstering the Hillary Clinton candidacy.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, Trump’s chances of winning the presidency are just about one in six, exactly 17.5%. While his odds have steadily declined since the first presidential debate back in September, they now seem to have leveled off.

Battleground states hold the key to a Trump win on November 8.

The good news for Clinton is that she is ahead in most of them, and Trump’s antics, coupled with demographic changes across the country, have thrown a couple of typically red states into the mix. Think Arizona and Georgia, states that have gone Republican in at least the past four presidential elections.



There are a few states Trump is just about required to win if he wants to have a chance at the White House.

The way the electoral map looks, just days out from one of the most hotly contested presidential elections in some time, a Clinton win in Florida (Clinton +1.6%) and Pennsylvania (Clinton +4.4%) and just one of either Colorado (Clinton +6.2%), Michigan (Clinton +8.8%), North Carolina (+2%), Wisconsin (Clinton +6.5%), Arizona (Clinton +1.5%) or Nevada (Clinton +3.6%), secures her at least 270 electoral votes.*

What is troubling for Trump: Even with wins in Florida, where he trails slightly, Arizona and North Carolina, the states in which he is closest to Clinton, Hillary Clinton has leads in the other battlegrounds he needs. Margins that seem too large to overcome.

Then again, Trump still has a chance. Polls could be overestimating minority turnout, and underestimating older white turnout -- voters that are historically more likely to vote. One shouldn’t trivialize the effect that coercion and intimidation could have at the polls, especially for states that are close, like Florida and Arizona.

Interesting aside: RealClearPolitics has Texas as a toss-up, a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since 1976.

*Polling averages from RealClearPolitics

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