• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, July 13, 2017

Whether stores can expect to sell a lot more backpacks, sneakers and first-day-of-school outfits this year depends on who you ask. The National Retail Federation just released an upbeat prediction that back-to-school spending will jump 10% to reach $83.6 billion, its highest level since 2012, with department stores faring well. But predictions from Deloitte are considerably more subdued, forecasting flat spending overall, with department stores among the casualties.

The NRF says families with kids in elementary through high school expect to spend $688, on average, up 8% from last year. The Washington D.C.-based trade group says that steady employment and rising wages are making customers feel like shopping for kids, with 95% planning to buy clothes, spending an average of $239 per child; 60% shopping for some type of electronics, spending about $204; 93% buying shoes, spending about $130, and 97% stocking up on school supplies, including notebooks and backpacks, spending $114.

It says it expects department stores to be big winners this year, with 57% of its survey intending to shop there, with 54% heading to discount stores, and 46% each making purchases online or at specialty apparel chains. 

The survey, conducted by Prosper Insights for the NRF, is based on more than 7,200 adults, and also predicts parents will start shopping somewhat earlier than last year.

Deloitte is less optimistic, although it too predicts that the earlier parents start shopping, the more they’ll spend. Its report predicts that parents of kids in grades K through 12 will spend just $501 per student, on average, even with last year’s spending.

And it is expecting a big shift into apparel, which it believes will account for about 55% of spending, a gain of 10 percentage points from last year, mostly at the expense of school supplies and computers.

And unlike the NRF, it’s got gloomy news for department stores: While some 81% of the parents in its 1,200-person say they’ll do at least some shopping at mass merchants, a jump of 24 percentage points from last year, far fewer predict they’ll shop at department stores. Just 28% say they will make purchases in such stores, down from 54% last year.