Like others, I assumed the current administration would bungle us into some kind of war by now, I just didn't know it would be a trade war. Politics aside, this war is threatening economies, both macro and, as far as Madison Avenue is concerned, micro ones too.
Data published this morning by economist Steve Rattner on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," and subsequently on Twitter, is similar to data published Tuesday by GroupM Business Intelligence suggesting that businesses understand something most consumer do not yet realize: the economy is fragile, showing signs of "fracture," and most likely will be flat, if not decline.
Whether we go into a defined recession or not, will be up to economists to determine, but the leading indicators currently are not good. GroupM, at least, is warning advertisers to be prepared. Someone needs to warn consumers too, because their expectations are at odds with underlying economic indicators.
I'd also suggest someone warn the President who is helping steer the economy into an abyss, but I don't think he'd listen to them even if they tried. The trade war, like the "wall," immigration, gun control legislation, are all just political volley balls, even if the casualties end up being people.