• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, December 7, 2021

One headline grabbing business estimate shows the streaming world will soon be turned upside down: Massive cancellations globally on the order of 150 million.

But Deloitte, which issued the report, says not to worry. While it predicts churn rate to skyrocket to 30% -- from around single-digit churn rate traditionally seen for premium cable TV networks like HBO and Showtime -- expect more streamers services to gain new consumer subscriptions.

We can only assume three or four average premium platforms for consumers aren’t enough -- especially for developing nations.

Netflix may have over 200 million worldwide subscribers. But it sees even more massive growth, with the potential of getting close to 1 billion. One big country target includes India, which has a population of 1.4 billion.

So why this massive new volatility? The on-demand TV world with easy broadband access, has a lot of online flexibility. You can cancel one month, and then come back the next.

Perhaps executives believed the streaming world would follow traditional cable premium channels, like HBO or Showtime, where it was more cumbersome for consumers to drop premium services. That meant “churn” staying low, in the single-digit percentage range.

New streaming content means consumers can easily binge the whole season in one weekend -- and then drop a service to move on to another platform and its potential top marketed, populated TV shows or movie franchise.

In part -- but not completely -- this may address the longtime, cable TV-centric consumer problem: a la carte programming.

Publicly minded consumers groups have said it has been unfair to package 150 to 200 cable networks, when, on average, consumers typically only view around eight to 12.

The streaming consumer option is still not a perfect a la carte experience. Massive TV network-centric media companies are still packaging a lot of content from all their entertainment brands under one roof. Yet, at a low sub $10 a month subscription fee, consumers have yet to complain.

That said, even now it seems a $4.99 or $7.99/month price tag for a streaming subscription service -- with no annual contract -- isn’t enough flexibility for consumers.

So if you are Paramount+, Peacock, Disney+, Hulu, prepare for a new level of nervousness: Say goodbye to many consumers next year. But also say hello to at least many new ones, too.

Your job as a streaming business professional: Keep those new TV shows and movies coming. Faster.