Ad Signals Still Mixed, But Generally Downward, Print Ad Pages Slip Again

Midway through a week of revised ad forecasts and tracking studies, new mixed signals emerged on Wednesday as a leading ad monitoring firm released its estimates on the first nine months of the year, and as the magazine industry reported its fourth consecutive month of magazine ad page erosion. TNS Media Intelligence, the major of Madison Avenue's two syndicated ad spending tracking services, reported that spending rose only 3.0 percent during the first nine months of 2005 in the media it monitors. That's about a third less growth in spending than was reported last week by the No. 2 ad monitoring firm, Nielsen Monitor-Plus, and is likely reflected in the way each company tracks certain media.

The Publishers Information Bureau, meanwhile, reported that November vs. November 2004 ad page volume fell 1 percent, the fourth consecutive month of magazine ad page erosion. While pages are up 0.2 percent for the year-to-date, the slackening of ad pages demand comes at a time when agencies are negotiating their calendar 2006 advertising rate deals with the major magazine publishers. It also comes at a time when the magazine industry is marketing aggressively to promote the awareness and perception of its medium to Madison Avenue (see related story in today's MDN.

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Ad spending in media overall, meanwhile appears to be ending the year on a weaker note than many had anticipated, according to the deluge of downward ad outlook revisions issued this week. TNS' data only reinforces that, though the company said that if incremental ad spending related to the 2004 Summer Olympics and U.S. elections were taken out of the equation, total ad spending would reflect a 4.5 percent increase during the first nine months of 2005, the same number estimated by Monitor-Plus.

Interestingly, TNS shows the strongest medium in terms of ad spending growth during the period was magazines, albeit local ones, which grew 23.1 percent. TNS also reported strong ad dollar growth for national consumer magazines - +7.6 percent - but its numbers reflect published rate card data and do not factor real world discounting, which is substantial.

The next fastest growing medium, according to TNS is cable TV (+12.2 percent), followed by the Internet (+11.5 percent), though some consider TNS' tracking of online media to be conservative.

Ad Spending, First Nine Months

Jan-Sept '05 (Millions)

Jan-Sept '04 (Millions)

Change

NEWSPAPERS (LOCAL)

$18,396.2

$17,941.4

+2.5%

NETWORK TV

$16,151.8

$16,463.1

-1.9%

CONSUMER MAGAZINES

$15,508.2

$14,411.2

+7.6%

CABLE TV

$11,523.0

$10,271.0

+12.2%

SPOT TV2

$11,180.7

$12,245.6

-8.7%

INTERNET3

$6,060.3

$5,436.3

+11.5%

LOCAL RADIO4

$5,538.7

$5,438.8

+1.8%

B-TO-B MAGAZINES

$3,346.3

$3,276.5

+2.1%

SYNDICATION

$3,077.4

$2,898.5

+6.2%

SPANISH LANGUAGE TV5

$3,039.6

$2,942.7

+3.3%

OUTDOOR

$2,616.6

$2,397.9

+9.1%

NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS

$2,459.1

$2,375.0

+3.5%

NATIONAL SPOT RADIO

$1,908.9

$1,875.1

+1.8%

SUNDAY MAGAZINES

$1,143.8

$1,053.1

+8.6%

FSI's6

$1,103.9

$1,065.7

+3.6%

NETWORK RADIO

$731.5

$754.2

-3.0%

LOCAL MAGAZINES

$281.5

$228.7

+23.1%

TOTAL7

$104,067.6

$101,074.7

+3.0%

Source: TNS Media Intelligence
1. Figures are based on the TNS Media Intelligence Stradegy multimedia ad expenditure database across all TNS MI measured media, including: Network TV; Spot TV; Cable TV (44 networks); Syndication TV; Hispanic Network TV; Consumer Magazines (206 publications);,Sunday Magazines (5 publications); Local Magazines (26 publications); Hispanic Magazines (26 publications); Business-to-Business Magazines (448 publications); Local Newspapers (143 publications); National Newspapers (3 publications); Hispanic Newspapers (53 publications); Network Radio; Spot Radio; Local Radio; Internet; and Outdoor. Figures do not contain public service announcement (PSA) data.
2. Spot TV figures do not include Hispanic Spot TV data.
3. Internet figures do not include paid search advertising.
4. Local Radio includes expenditures for 34 markets in the U.S provided by Miller Kaplan.
5. Spanish Language Media includes expenditures from Hispanic Network and Cable TV (Univision, Telemundo, Telefutura and Galavision); Hispanic Spot TV; Hispanic Magazines; and Hispanic Newspapers.
6. FSI data represents distribution costs only.
7. The sum of the individual media may differ from the total due to rounding.

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