Midway through a week of revised ad forecasts and tracking studies, new mixed signals emerged on Wednesday as a leading ad monitoring firm released its estimates on the first nine months of the year,
and as the magazine industry reported its fourth consecutive month of magazine ad page erosion. TNS Media Intelligence, the major of Madison Avenue's two syndicated ad spending tracking services,
reported that spending rose only 3.0 percent during the first nine months of 2005 in the media it monitors. That's about a third less growth in spending than was reported last week by the No. 2 ad
monitoring firm, Nielsen Monitor-Plus, and is likely reflected in the way each company tracks certain media.
The Publishers Information Bureau, meanwhile, reported that November vs. November 2004
ad page volume fell 1 percent, the fourth consecutive month of magazine ad page erosion. While pages are up 0.2 percent for the year-to-date, the slackening of ad pages demand comes at a time when
agencies are negotiating their calendar 2006 advertising rate deals with the major magazine publishers. It also comes at a time when the magazine industry is marketing aggressively to promote the
awareness and perception of its medium to Madison Avenue (see related story in today's MDN.
advertisement
advertisement
Ad spending in media overall, meanwhile appears to be ending the year on a weaker note than many
had anticipated, according to the deluge of downward ad outlook revisions issued this week. TNS' data only reinforces that, though the company said that if incremental ad spending related to the 2004
Summer Olympics and U.S. elections were taken out of the equation, total ad spending would reflect a 4.5 percent increase during the first nine months of 2005, the same number estimated by
Monitor-Plus.
Interestingly, TNS shows the strongest medium in terms of ad spending growth during the period was magazines, albeit local ones, which grew 23.1 percent. TNS also reported strong ad
dollar growth for national consumer magazines - +7.6 percent - but its numbers reflect published rate card data and do not factor real world discounting, which is substantial.
The next fastest
growing medium, according to TNS is cable TV (+12.2 percent), followed by the Internet (+11.5 percent), though some consider TNS' tracking of online media to be conservative.
Ad Spending, First Nine Months |
| Jan-Sept '05 (Millions) | Jan-Sept '04 (Millions) | Change |
NEWSPAPERS (LOCAL) | $18,396.2 |
$17,941.4 | +2.5% |
NETWORK TV | $16,151.8 | $16,463.1 | -1.9% |
CONSUMER MAGAZINES | $15,508.2 | $14,411.2 |
+7.6% |
CABLE TV | $11,523.0 | $10,271.0 | +12.2% |
SPOT TV2 | $11,180.7 | $12,245.6 | -8.7% |
INTERNET3 | $6,060.3 | $5,436.3
| +11.5% |
LOCAL RADIO4 | $5,538.7 | $5,438.8 | +1.8% |
B-TO-B MAGAZINES | $3,346.3 | $3,276.5 |
+2.1% |
SYNDICATION | $3,077.4 | $2,898.5 | +6.2% |
SPANISH LANGUAGE TV5 | $3,039.6 | $2,942.7 | +3.3% |
OUTDOOR | $2,616.6 |
$2,397.9 | +9.1% |
NATIONAL NEWSPAPERS
| $2,459.1 | $2,375.0 | +3.5% |
NATIONAL SPOT RADIO | $1,908.9 | $1,875.1 |
+1.8% |
SUNDAY MAGAZINES | $1,143.8
| $1,053.1 | +8.6% |
FSI's6 | $1,103.9 | $1,065.7 | +3.6% |
NETWORK RADIO | $731.5 | $754.2 | -3.0% |
LOCAL MAGAZINES | $281.5 | $228.7 | +23.1% |
TOTAL7 | $104,067.6 | $101,074.7 | +3.0% |
Source: TNS Media Intelligence
1. Figures are
based on the TNS Media Intelligence Stradegy multimedia ad expenditure database across all TNS MI measured media, including: Network TV; Spot TV; Cable TV (44 networks); Syndication TV; Hispanic
Network TV; Consumer Magazines (206 publications);,Sunday Magazines (5 publications); Local Magazines (26 publications); Hispanic Magazines (26 publications); Business-to-Business Magazines (448
publications); Local Newspapers (143 publications); National Newspapers (3 publications); Hispanic Newspapers (53 publications); Network Radio; Spot Radio; Local Radio; Internet; and Outdoor. Figures
do not contain public service announcement (PSA) data.
6. FSI data represents distribution costs only.