• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 14, 2022

The Big 4 agency holding company consensus outlook for next year fell again this morning, as Dentsu slashed its 2023 estimates for global ad spending growth to 3.8%, the lowest estimate of any coming out of the major holding company forecasting units.

The 2023 growth estimate is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 5.4% growth Dentsu projected for 2023 in its last update in July.

Based on Dentsu's downward revision, the agency consensus for 2023 global ad growth is 4.4%, down from 5.6% when GroupM, Magna and Zenith issued their new year-end outlooks last week.

Like the others, Dentsu noted that the ad economy has remained relatively resilient despite increasing economic volatility and geopolitical unrest, but implied some of that is being carried forward into next year's projections.

“It is clear from our report and forecast the effect of this is being felt into 2023 too, and we need to be realistic on how this will impact the industry, the inventory, and the returns we should expect from available budgets," Dentsu International Global CEO-Media and Global Clients Peter Huijboom stated, adding, "With the increased business focus on immediate gains to help ride out this temporary economic slowdown."