• by January 10, 2006

Yes, believe it or not, non-carbon life forms came up during an Advertising Club lunch in New York today. So did the phrases "social schizophrenia" and "supercharged brains."

The gathering, dubbed "A Vision for the Future" and sponsored by AOL, featured a panel discussion with the top marketers of Verizon Wireless and Wendy's, along with Ted Leonsis, AOL's vice chairman, and Rishad Tobaccowala, Publicis Groupe's chief innovation officer. Each made prognostications about the future, as in 2020, and the implications for marketing and media.

The panel was moderated by one of the most entertaining and unique women we've heard in quite some time--Edie Weiner, president, Weiner, Edrich Brown, Inc. Weiner is a brainy futurist/comedienne and author of Insider's Guide to the Future and FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. Weiner's firm works with corporate clients and associations on strategy and brand issues. She discussed several trends that will, or are already affecting, the worlds of advertising, media, and communications profoundly.

First, Weiner noted that the pace of change in our society, hastened by the Web and technology, has created a kind of social schizophrenia that spawns multiple personalities. Too, people are continually transitioning in their personal and professional lives. The pace of change has led to people continually trying on and wearing many different roles, often simultaneously. These changes, and individuals' perceptions of their changing roles, have profound implications for media and advertising.

Secondly, Weiner says that demographics really don't work anymore. Forget about 25 to 54. Fugedaboutit. The "world story," according to Weiner, is about people under 25 and those over 55. And there are plenty of people over 55. This group isn't a monolith. There are more differences and nuances among those over 55 than there are among those under 25. Of great concern, is that in Japan, China, and in Western European countries, there is no replacement stock for the aging population. Immigration, migration, guest workers, seamless borders, and the global economy will eventually contribute to repopulating these countries over time.

Today's super-charged brains are experiencing and processing media in radically different ways. Weiner used vivid examples to illustrate just how much brains have evolved over the last 50 years. Babies today are so hyper-stimulated, self-aware, and environmentally-savvy, that by the time they reach school age, they frequently are medicated with Ritalin. Is it any wonder, Weiner notes, since we send our over-stimulated, media-savvy kids to school systems that haven't changed since the early 20th century. This observation drew plenty of laughs in recognition.

Then, there are the non-carbon life forms. The avatars. The digital friends. Weiner contends that in the next decade, these will evolve to such an extent that we'll have to manage and communicate with them. Gatekeepers and decisionmakers, i.e., marketers, will be communicated to by non-carbon life forms. Oh, boy.

"Ages and demographics really don't matter any more," agreed John Harrobin, vice president, marketing communications, Verizon Wireless. "We're constantly changing pixels...we know what messages our customers want. I think behavioral targeting will be much more important, and the medium is secondary to the selling idea."

Harrobin, who just returned from the international Consumer Electonics Show, where his company launched the new Vcast Online Music Store, will break a dynamic online campaign running on AOL's network, among other online destinations, on Jan. 16. The campaign was created by Moxie Interactive, Atlanta. The Minute received a sneak peek, and we don't mind saying, it rocked.

AOL's Leonsis certainly seemed to be in a Zen mood, "The Internet is about happiness," he declared to a packed audience. As for his predictions, "We think people are motivated by their self-interest. The Internet is a social medium. It's a medium of connecting people."

Citing a study AOL conducted last year, Leonsis noted that the findings seemed to prove that the more communities people are connected to and participate in, the higher their self-esteem is. "The Internet is a way to give people more empowerment," he said, observing that the Internet helped facilitate more volunteerism and charity in the face of the tsunami and Hurricane Katrina than any other medium.

Ian Rowden, chief marketing officer, Wendy's, commented that "the concept of demographic determinism for companies like ours is totally redundant." Rowden noted that the organizational structures and the underpinnings of how business is conducted must change: "Success will be determined by how quickly we are able to drop old business models."

Publicis' Tobaccowala told the audience, "We need to think about people. We need to think about iteration.You have to iterate rapidly. Most of us have to fight for every single dollar every single day." To be sure. And speaking of iteration and changing the way marketers and media companies do business, look for Publicis Groupe to make a major announcement in the next 10 days about a new digital business venture. Nick Pahade, formerly of Beyond Interactive, is part of it, and there are more bright minds joining up.