• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, June 4, 2024

Ascential plc's WARC unit this morning published an upgrade to its retail media ad spending forecast, estimating it will expand to more than $153 million this year, beating a milestone projected by GroupM's business intelligence unit by two years (see chart above).

While the projections include some apples to oranges comparisons based on the line items each forecaster includes in their "retail media" definitions, GroupM's and WARC's gross projections align directionally, but while Group downgraded its retail media spending estimate for 2023 by 5% to $119.4 billion in its last ad spending forecast in December 2023, WARC boosted its estimate for 2024 8.2% to $153.3 billion vs. the $141.7 billion it previously forecast for this year in its October 2023 estimate.

WARC attributed the upgrade to "the continued growth is fueled by advances in off-site targeting as commerce data infuses into non-retail environments," though its current projections through 2025 do show a deceleration of retail media's global growth rates:

• 2022: +15.5%

• 2023: +13.0%

• 2024: +13.7%

• 2025: +10.6%

GroupM is scheduled to release a mid-year update to its annual global ad spending forecast June 11, but currently projects retail media spending rising to $175 billion in 2028.