• by Steven Rosenbaum , Featured Contributor, July 21, 2024

At a conference for the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Washington, D.C. last month, Donald Trump vowed to “begin the largest deportation operation in history.” He claimed, “We have probably close to 20 million people that came in from all parts of the world. They’re gonna have to be gone.”

This raises important questions: Who are these people, and what would the deportation process look like if Trump is re-elected?

And where would these 10 million people come from, in terms of their current place in the workforce? It's estimated that undocumented immigrants make up roughly 3% to 4% of the total U.S. population. The top five jobs commonly held by undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are often reported as:

Service Industry: Including jobs in hospitality, restaurants, and cleaning services.

Construction: Many work in various aspects of the construction industry.

Farming and Agriculture: Often in crop harvesting and other agricultural work.

Manufacturing: Particularly in industries like textile and food processing.

Transportation: Such as taxi driving, delivery services, and other transportation-related jobs.

In the restaurant and food service industry, staffing shortages could lead to longer wait times, reduced hours, or even closures. The hospitality sector, including hotels and resorts, might struggle to maintain housekeeping and other services, negatively impacting customer satisfaction. Transportation services, such as taxis, ride-sharing, and delivery, could experience delays and reduced availability, affecting commuters and consumers alike.

Implementing such a large-scale deportation would involve numerous challenges. Increased enforcement efforts would be necessary to locate and apprehend undocumented individuals. This would require expanding deportation hearings and processes to handle a significantly larger number of cases.

Additionally, managing the logistics of detention facilities, transportation, and legal proceedings on such an unprecedented scale would be daunting. The social and economic impacts would be profound, disrupting families, communities, and industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Politically and legally, the plan would likely face significant opposition and challenges over constitutional rights and humanitarian concerns.

Expanding detention facilities would be necessary to accommodate the scale of this proposed deportation process. Currently, some of the largest immigration detention facilities in the United States include Stewart Detention Center in Georgia, Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California and Karnes County Residential Center in Texas. GEO Group and CoreCivic, major operators of these facilities, could benefit significantly from such an expansion. However, both companies have faced criticism over treatment conditions and accusations of profiting from mass incarceration and immigration detention.

Deporting 10 million undocumented immigrants would send shockwaves through the U.S. economy. These individuals not only work in critical sectors but also spend money on groceries, rent, and local businesses. The sudden loss of this customer base could lead to widespread business closures and economic instability.

Filling these jobs with unemployed Americans is unrealistic, as many are not suited for such work. The resulting labor shortages could disrupt supply chains and lower overall productivity, causing inflation and higher prices for goods and services.

Prominent economists have expressed strong opposition to Trump's mass deportation plan. Giovanni Peri from UC Davis has found that deporting undocumented immigrants could shrink the U.S. economy, reducing GDP by 2% to 3%. David Kallick from the Fiscal Policy Institute emphasizes that mass deportation would lead to a decline in productivity and consumer spending, resulting in widespread business closures and layoffs. Alicia Sasser Modestino, a labor market expert, points out that the short-term effects of mass deportation would include labor shortages and increased wages, potentially leading to inflation. In the long term, businesses might turn to automation to replace the lost labor, but this transition could be economically disruptive.

Overall, the consensus among economists is that mass deportation would have devastating economic effects, making it an unsupportable policy from an economic standpoint. Deporting millions is not just a political move; it carries real-life consequences for jobs, businesses, and communities across America.