• by John Gaffney , September 25, 2002

Indigestion: I was driving home from our Mediapost Forecast 2003 conference in Manhattan last night, and I stopped at the McDonald’s on the Hutchinson Parkway, supersized my Quarter Pounder and fries, came home, kissed the kids and sat down to write this. So I’ll attribute some of this paranoia to mega grease toxicity. But, on the real paranoia side, it hit me for real today that Wal-Mart has warned on its earnings. When Wal-Mart sneezes, you gotta figure other retailers are weezing. What concerns me is that a potential recovery in radio and newspapers could be hurt by a retail slowdown. Those two media in particular need retail ads to grow. And that retail slowdown could be fueled by a continuing lack of consumer confidence, which is now in its fourth month of decline. I believe Q4 bookings are solid. But if consumers don’t show up to buy all those advertised Wal-Mart, Toys R Us and Target products, Q1 is going to be a huge headache.

Provocation: One theme that kept repeating itself at yesterday’s Forecast was the continuing need for brands to define their advertising and marketing goals. That surprised me. I know I’m supposed to be jaded by now, but I really thought the brand world was populated by some pretty smart troops. I wonder if the problem is not that brands haven’t defined their goals, it could be that they don’t communicate their goals very well to the agency level.

Fashion:And after enjoying a full day with media pros of all ages and taste in clothes, I say this business does not need to go back to suits. Open collars, black mock turtlenecks and comfortable shoes rule.