• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, Yesterday

Following a surprising high single-digit uptick in March, the U.S. ad market expanded just 1.7% in April, marking the weakest growth since September 2023, according to a MediaPost analysis of data from Guideline's U.S. Ad Market Tracker.

Looking at the first four months of the year, the month-to-month volatility appears erratic, but not unexpected given the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

That said, the first quarter averaged meaningful growth, despite February's weak contribution to the quarter.

"In actuality, the ad market appears to have expanded by nearly 10%" during the first quarter, based on his own analysis of public data excluding the effects of political advertising, Brian Wieser wrote in Thursday's edition of his Ma dison and Wall newsletter, characterizing it as "a relatively significant turn of fortune for the overall industry."

"As we look to revisit our expectations for the remainder of 2025, we have two main questions we are pondering for the rest of the year that, if answered, may help explain the result in 1Q25," he continued, "Was the strength in the ad market a function of a strong underlying economy? Was the growth in the quarter simply a pull-forward in demand?"

If there has been a "pull-forward," it does not appear to have continued into April, based on Guideline's most recent data, which is derived from actual spending by the big agency holding companies and major independent media-buying agencies.