• by Joe Mandese , Yesterday

Has the advertising marketplace entered a K-shaped expansion -- a term economists use to describe a period of uneven growth among segments of an economy? That's a question the ad industry economists at Madison and Wall raised in today's edition of their Substack newsletter, and it appears to be supported by the most recent data from MediaPosts and Guideline's monthly U.S. Ad Market Tracker.

Data for April, the most recent complete monthly data provided by Guideline, shows the total U.S. ad marketplace expanded 1.9%, the most modest rate of growth since last summer when July and August data compared with the 2024 Summer Olympic Games advertising boost (see below).

But the K-shaped dynamic within that data reveals the ad market expansion isn't exactly even. While the total market rose 1.9%, the top 10 advertising categories jumped 4.6%, but all other ad categories fell 1.5% (see above).

Noting that the macro economy currently appears to have a K-shape to it, the Madison and Wall analysts suggest the same thing may be true among advertiser and ad categories (see below).

Not surprisingly, the analysis shows that consumer-facing goods appear to be under greater pressure than other categories.

"Consumer headwinds are already flowing through to advertising budgets," the analysts note.