• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 10 hours ago

With the upcoming TV season, now underway, look for broadcast TV network shows have a better chance of survival than streaming TV shows -- that is, if recent history means something.

Data from Luminate show that the existing broadcast TV series had a 75% and 68% renewal rate in 2025 and 2024, respectively.

Streaming shows, on the other hand, come in at a rate of 49% and 47%, respectively.

Hulu had a higher rate in 2025 at 54%, while Netflix was at 51% and Paramount+ was at 50%.

Why is that?

"Broadcast networks' programming decisions are often more straightforward than the streamers,' thanks to the more limited budget ranges and uncomplicated viewership data for broadcast series,” according to authors of the study.

“Shows that perform well get renewed; titles that do not are axed, usually quickly.”

But now consider the bigger picture -- the actual total number of shows for each.

For example, in the first half of this year, of the 125 new TV shows that premiered on streaming platforms, 48 were renewed.

The broadcast rate of survival was better -- but from a much smaller number.

Of the 38 new TV shows starting up for the first half of 2026 on broadcast television, 21 were renewed.

Not only do broadcast TV shows have better predictability as to their survival of new TV shows.

In addition, many prime-time shows have strong awareness under existing brand names such as “NCIS,” “Law & Order,” “FBI” and other content.

One could also throw in new unscripted spinoffs. A new "Dancing with the Stars: The Next Pro" spinoff series started in July on ABC and streams on Hulu.

Also consider that many of those returning streaming series initially get their start on broadcast TV, as a promotional push of sorts.

A network then has much more invested to perhaps keep the show healthy and going for a long period of time.

There is also the reverse. After four years on Peacock, "The Traitors" has gotten a civilian-cast spinoff on NBC Television Network as “The Traitors: New Blood” starting the fall season.

Overall, however, shows starting up on streaming platforms -- especially those on legacy media-owned platforms like Paramount+, Peacock, Disney+, HBO Max -- can have a rough road for survival without that national TV promotional marketing push.

One more thing to consider: Audience retention, for both streaming and broadcast. This is defined as looking at a season finale (in total minutes watched or number of viewers) versus its premiere showings.

If that final episode is -- generally speaking -- under the 50% mark from its premiere viewing data, then, more often than not, the axe will be falling quickly.

That happened with Apple TV’s “The Last Frontier,” HBO Max’s “Duster” and Paramount+’s “Happy Face,” among others.

Any lessons learned here -- going into the 2026-2027 TV season?